Jordi Visser, CEO of Visser Labs and Head of AI Macro Research at 22V
On this episode of the Alpha Exchange, I’m pleased to welcome back Jordi Visser, CEO of Visser Labs and Head of AI Macro Research at 22V. Our conversation centers on one of the most consequential themes in markets today: the intersection of artificial intelligence, exponential innovation, and market structure. With Nvidia’s historic rise as a backdrop and AI’s increasing integration into every sector, Jordi pushes back on the tendency to label this cycle a “bubble,” arguing that AI is more akin to electricity — an enabling technology whose applications will permeate everyday life. Demand for compute remains effectively infinite, he notes, and the supply shortfalls in GPUs, data centers, and power capacity shape how investors should think about the buildout phase.Jordi also lays out a framework for navigating volatility in sectors tied to AI buildout — including how to handle 20–30% drawdowns — and why estimate revisions matter more than multiple expansion from here. Beyond markets, we explore the labor dynamics of exponential technology: the K-shaped economy, margin pressure at retailers, and why he believes labor participation will keep drifting lower even without mass layoffs.Finally, we examine the policy environment. Here Jordi asserts that the Fed’s framework is backward looking and misses how humanoids, robotaxis, and accelerated drug discovery may drive deflationary pressures.I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Jordi Visser.
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Alex Kazan, Partner and Geopolitical Co-Lead, Brunswick Group
The global economic and geopolitical order has long been balanced by the United States. Today, however, that traditional stabilizing role is in flux. The drivers of market uncertainty, typically resulting from changes in monetary policy and the economy, are increasingly linked to US politics. Fiscal strain, tariffs, and hyper-partisanship are sources of unpredictability reverberating across markets worldwide. In this context, it was a pleasure to welcome Alex Kazan, Partner and Co-head of the Geopolitical Practice at the Brunswick Group, back to the Alpha Exchange.Our conversation explores just how we got to a point where the US is exporting risk to the rest of the world. Alex argues that this is not solely about Donald Trump but more the result of structural forces that have been building over time. The advent of social media and the technology that maximizes attention by algorithmically parsing individuals into one camp or the other and the twin shocks of the GFC and Pandemic have deepened partisanship and led to an erosion of institutional trust.On the international front, Alex points to the growing willingness of policymakers to weaponize economic tools like tariffs, sanctions, and export controls. This policy volatility, he argues, has redefined how multinational firms think about resilience, supply chains, and risk. In this new environment, economic strategy and foreign policy are fused, and companies must learn to negotiate not just with markets, but with Washington itself. Finally, we turn to the global stage, where U.S.–China relations remain a critical axis of uncertainty. Alex offers a nuanced view: while risks of escalation remain, the very ambition and unpredictability of U.S. policy may also open space for recalibration—a potential “grand bargain” that could stabilize the system.I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Alex Kazan.
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Is US Stock Market Wealth a Reflexive Risk?
Loyal listeners, I hope your recent days have gone well, even if they are becoming shorter. On my mind – and where I hope to engage your interest for 20 odd minutes – is the topic of risk and uncertainty.The SPX is at an all time high and it is also highly concentrated with volatile and richly valued but uncorrelated tech behemoths. That’s very unique. Whether you are an AI bull or bear, one thing we must acknowledge is the unique degree of index concentration and the risks that accompany it.The exposure of both US households and foreign investors to the SPX is at an all-time high. There’s a reflexive element here. The massive increase in market cap for corporates is the currency that funds the epic capex. For consumers, facing a tepid labor market and ongoing cost of living challenges, stock market wealth matters a great deal.I also discuss the surge in volatility in gold and the advent of prediction markets. I hope you enjoy the discussion. Be well.
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Ben Hoff, Global Head of Commodity Strategy Société Générale
The distribution of asset price returns is a subject of much study in the literature of empirical finance. We know, of course, that equity returns are left-tailed, subject to the occasional violent plunge. But other asset classes are different, and in this context it was a pleasure to welcome Ben Hoff, Global Head of Commodity Strategy at Société Générale, to the Alpha Exchange. Ben describes commodities as a dual system — one that exists both physically and financially. This duality means real-world frictions such as storage, transport, and substitution shape risk and return in ways financial models often miss. Unlike equities, where the volatility risk premium (VRP) is structural and macro-driven — investors chronically overpay for protection against crashes — the commodity VRP is episodic and micro-driven, emerging only when the physical system’s natural buffers are overwhelmed. Ben likens the commodity ecosystem to a CDO structure of risk absorption. The first-loss tranche is “optionality in time,” where storage smooths shocks by shifting supply forward. The mezzanine tranche cures through space and form, rerouting flows across geographies or substituting between products. Only when those defenses are depleted does the equity tranche — financial volatility — take over. This hierarchy explains why volatility in commodities is less persistent but often more explosive when it surfaces. We also explore how the financialization of commodities — benchmark indices, systematic flows, and vol strategies — has created visible “signatures” in pricing, yet the underlying markets remain driven by physical constraints and optionality. Ben’s takeaway: commodities are inherently antifragile, making their risk premia complex, localized, and highly path dependent. I hope you enjoy this episode of the Alpha Exchange, my conversation with Ben Hoff.
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Low Correlation is the Defining Risk in Markets
They say that diversification is the only “free lunch” in markets. Scatter your bets around and you’ll realize a reduction in volatility that helps you manage risk. That’s been happening at an epic scale in US equity markets: the 1m correlation among stocks in the S&P 500 is (to quote Dean Wormer from Animal House) zero point zero. But I’d argue that today’s index and the trillions of dollars that track it are enjoying a run of low correlation among stocks that is unsustainable. It’s not if, but when the next correlated risk-off episode materializes.Effective risk management requires a healthy imagination and a willingness to carefully evaluate blind spots. In the aftermath of largescale drawdowns and spikes in measures like the VIX, a consistent realization by investors is that the degree of “sameness” in assets was underestimated. It took us until 2008 to recognize that the substantial run up in housing prices was linked to a common underlying driver: the vast supply of mortgage credit. There was a hugely under-appreciated source of correlation that failed to make it into how securities and risk scenarios were modeled. Today, amidst these record low levels of correlation among stocks in the S&P 500, are we similarly missing a hidden yet shared connection that exists in the ecosystem of companies all engaged in the pursuit of AI riches? Is the stunning wealth already generated being recycled today in the same way that mortgage credit was recycled in 2006?I hope you enjoy this discussion and find it useful. Be well.
The Alpha Exchange is a podcast series launched by Dean Curnutt to explore topics in financial markets, risk management and capital allocation in the alternatives industry. Our in depth discussions with highly established industry professionals seek to uncover the nuanced and complex interactions between economic, monetary, financial, regulatory and geopolitical sources of risk. We aim to learn from the perspective our guests can bring with respect to the history of financial and business cycles, promoting a better understanding among listeners as to how prior periods provide important context to present day dynamics. The “price of risk” is an important topic. Here we engage experts in their assessment of risk premium levels in the context of uncertainty. Is the level of compensation attractive? Because Central Banks have played so important a role in markets post crisis, our discussions sometimes aim to better understand the evolution of monetary policy and the degree to which the real and financial economy will be impacted. An especially important area of focus is on derivative products and how they interact with risk taking and carry dynamics. Our conversations seek to enlighten listeners, for example, as to the factors that promoted the February melt-down of the VIX complex. We do NOT ask our guests for their political opinions. We seek a better understanding of the market impact of regulatory change, election outcomes and events of geopolitical consequence. Our discussions cover markets from a macro perspective with an assessment of risk and opportunity across asset classes. Within equity markets, we may explore the relative attractiveness of sectors but will NOT discuss single stocks.
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