Forward Guidance

Treasury is quietly taking control of financial conditions and the market implications could trigger a new wave in the debasement trade.

This week, Felix and Quinn unpack Treasury’s accelerating intervention in long-term yields and why it could reignite the rotation into hard assets as policymakers suppress yields and tolerate inflation.

We explore inflation, dollar weakness, AI financing, oil's ongoing supply shock, and where capital likely rotates next. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

03:17 Treasury Buybacks Change The Game

12:53 Is This Fiscal Operation Twist?

19:17 Where Does The Debasement Trade Go?

24:18 How Long Can They Goose Markets?

29:08 Can The Fed Stay Hawkish?

33:39 When Should You Buy Inflation Protection?

37:58 Is Debt Monetization Next?

41:25 Where Should Investors Hide?

46:12 What Comes After The AI Boom?

51:58 Final Thoughts

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1dCi1wentet0JRlYXC_OX0s2QIm1qXvIW/view?usp=sharing

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Running the economy hot may keep growth alive, but it creates a dangerous balancing act for markets.

Darius Dale, founder of 42 Macro, joins us to explain why today’s reflationary regime demands a different investing playbook.

We also discuss rising neutral rates, bond-market pressure, Fed credibility, capital scarcity, and systematic portfolio risk management. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

01:00 The Risk-On Reflation Regime

06:29 Why This Bull Market Feels Harder

14:54 The Fed Risks The Bond Market

20:57 Inside The Fed’s Policy Tightrope

29:49 Can Policymakers Stick The Landing?

37:10 Why Risk Management Beats Buy-And-Hold

43:29 Making Institutional Tools Accessible

FOLLOW DARIUS

› X/Twitter – https://x.com/DariusDale42

› 42 Macro – https://42macro.com/

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

EVENTS

› Join. usat Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Washington is shifting from monetary management toward state-directed capitalism and the consequences could reshape where capital flows next.

This week, Tyler joins us for his final roundup before heading to Shoten Capital, unpacking the shift toward state-directed growth and volatility suppression.

We explore Fed-Treasury coordination, the AI capex boom, energy abundance, and whether Bitcoin is approaching a turning point. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

00:58 Tyler's Farewell

04:34 Markets Enter A New Regime

06:22 Treasury Takes Control Of Volatility

15:11 Nuclear Power Supercycle?

20:18 Backstopping The Global Short Vol Trade

24:50 Are Policy Band-Aids Creating Bigger Risks?

28:48 Gold Sniffs Out The Policy Pivot

33:35 The AI Capex Boom Becomes Statecraft

40:42 Can Markets Survive The Midterms?

44:19 Regulation Builds The AI Moat

46:01 Bitcoin Enters A Cleansing Phase

50:31 How Narratives Drive Capital Flows

55:34 Final Thoughts

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Tyler – https://x.com/Tyler_Neville

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/16t3aXIjnR07MLnyb7RGarzT0oaI7dOFH/view?usp=sharing

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

Markets are relearning that durable wealth comes from disciplined risk management, not chasing momentum or relying on central bank intervention.

This week, we're joined by Jared Dillian, editor of The Daily Dirtnap and author of The Awesome Portfolio, to discuss why markets may be entering a new regime where risk management matters more than maximizing returns.

We explore Warsh's Fed strategy, the case for a steeper yield curve, why the AI trade may be masking economic weakness, how sentiment shifts after crowded trades unwind, and why gold and diversified portfolios could be poised for a comeback. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

01:01 The Awesome Portfolio

04:42 Why Investors Misunderstand Risk

11:15 Warsh’s Intentional Policy Shift

14:17 The Yield Curve Meets Weak Data

17:32 Markets To Do The Heavy Lifting

20:00 Treasury Enters The Currency Fight

22:58 The Bear Market’s Starting Gun

27:57 Defensive Stocks, Oil And Gold

FOLLOW JARED

› X/Twitter – https://x.com/dailydirtnap

› Pre-Order The Awesome Portfolio –https://a.co/d/01yslEpJ

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.

AI’s leverage-fueled boom is colliding with a Fed determined to tighten conditions without touching short-term rates.

This week, we dig into the Situational Awareness liquidation, the Fed meeting, and whether markets have reached a genuine growth inflection.

We unpack the ongoing AI unwind, Warsh’s long-end strategy, the Fed's credibility shock, and the administration’s market choreography. Enjoy!

TIMESTAMPS:

00:00 Intro

01:45 Situational Awareness Liquidation

04:49 Why Leverage Fueled The Boom

07:51 Price Drives The Narrative

12:42 Did Markets Misread Warsh?

21:08 Why The Long End Matters

25:42 Warsh’s Communication Problem

29:17 What Comes At Jackson Hole?

33:14 Growth Hits An Inflection

38:27 Markets Vs Midterm Politics

45:46 August Slowdown Risks

FOLLOW THE SHOW

› Forward Guidance – https://x.com/ForwardGuidance

› Felix – https://x.com/fejau_inc

› Quinn – https://x.com/qthomp

› Telegram – https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx

› Blockworks – https://x.com/Blockworks

RESOURCES

› Weekly Roundup Charts – https://drive.google.com/file/d/1JJcuttegsr2dLgKuasjv7B5u5tPe-OAu/view?usp=drive_link

EVENTS

› Join us at Digital Asset Summit 2026 Asia October 7th & Digital Asset 2026 London November 10-11th

https://blockworks.com/events

DISCLAIMER

Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only. Any views expressed are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.