Markets Haven’t Priced In The End of Fiscal Tailwinds | Andy Constan
In this episode, Founder & CIO of Damped Spring Andy Constan breaks down the three major macro levers shaping markets right now: a cautious Fed at a leadership crossroads, a Treasury issuing cold water via its QRA policy, and a fiscal impulse that looks contractionary once tariffs are factored in. He argues that while markets may be riding “run it hot” narratives, the data suggests we're already slowing. Enjoy!
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This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.
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Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):
vaneck.com/SMHXFelix
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:03) Debating Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle
(04:13) Institutional Adoption & Regulation
(04:57) Are Four-Year Cycles Psychological?
(08:37) Bitcoin’s Evolving Political Impact
(09:48) Ledger Ad
(10:38) Bitcoin’s Evolving Political Impact
(17:00) Institutions Are Slow & Steady
(18:58) Reflecting on Bitcoin's Scarcity
(22:20) Crypto Regulation & Institutional Impact
(23:38) Ledger Ad
(24:25) Retail Investors & the Four-Year Cycle
(25:45) Adapting to Bitcoin's Middle Ages
(33:28) Can Blockchain Support Incoming Demand?
(36:50) Sovereign Adoption & Strategic Reserves
(38:28) OG Bitcoin HODLers Cashing Out
(41:38) Final Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance
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1:11:09
Will Market Euphoria Cool Off In August? | Weekly Round-Up
In this episode, we explore what’s next for markets after a week packed with major economic data. We break down the recent surge in market euphoria, discuss whether stagflation is taking hold, and examine the outlook for growth—plus much more. Enjoy!
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Treasury Companies: Market Data - https://blockworks.co/analytics/treasury-companies/market-data
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This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.
Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):
http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix
Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):
vaneck.com/SMHXFelix
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:56) Takeaways From Economic Data
(08:51) AI Capex Is The Economy Now
(11:09) VanEck Ad
(11:53) AI Capex Is The Economy Now
(17:46) Are We In Stagflation?
(22:16) Will Market Euphoria Cool Off In August?
(29:05) VanEck Ad
(29:50) How To Navigate Stagflation?
(38:12) Strategy’s Q2 Earnings
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance
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59:36
Breaking Down The FOMC Meeting with Joseph Wang, Brent Donnelly & Bob Elliot
In this LIVE FOMC meeting reaction, we’re bringing together three of the sharpest minds in macro – Joseph Wang, Brent Donnelly, and Bob Elliott – to break down the Fed interest rate decision, Powell’s press conference, and what it all means for markets going forward.
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Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for $100 OFF
https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london
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Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
00:25 Reactions to Hawkish Fed
07:45 GDP and Economic Growth
12:52 Inflation and the Labor Market
16:16 Tariffs and Their Economic Impact
21:49 Currency Dynamics and the US Dollar
27:42 Structural vs. Cyclical Dollar Trends
32:40 Future Fed Leadership
43:19 What's the Trade?
47:11 Crypto and Gold Market
50:47 Final Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance
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51:04
The Fed Is Fueling A New Inflation Wave | Danny Dayan
In this episode, Danny Dayan breaks down his framework for analyzing financial conditions and their real-time impact on growth and inflation. He explains why traditional rate transmission mechanisms are breaking down, how immigration and tariffs are distorting the labor market and inflation, and why the Fed may be behind the curve. Danny also lays out his case for a structurally weaker dollar, warns about a “doom loop” dynamic, and shares how he’s positioning his portfolio through it all. Enjoy!
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Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for $100 OFF
https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london
__
This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.
Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):
http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix
Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):
vaneck.com/SMHXFelix
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(01:08) Macro Overview
(06:18) Digging Into the Data
(11:03) Financial Conditions Framework
(12:11) VanEck Ad
(12:56) Financial Conditions Framework
(28:47) VanEck Ad
(29:26) Right Way to Think About Fed Funds
(38:56) Outlook on the Dollar
(46:40) What Does this Mean for Equities?
(50:44) Inflation & Growth Impulse Scenarios
(54:01) Final Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance
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55:33
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55:33
Welcome to Peak Monetary Policy Theater | Weekly Roundup
This week, Felix and Quinn unpack the Fed independence drama following Trump’s visit to Powell, explore the long-term implications of politicizing monetary policy, and preview next week’s pivotal QRA. They discuss how inflation expectations are diverging from commodities, why real yield correlations are breaking down, and how the dollar’s regime may be shifting. Enjoy!
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Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
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Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for $100 OFF
https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london
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Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1fStI5q6IlPMiU2_swJ_r5sImvbxFSugS/view?usp=sharing
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This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.
Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):
http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix
Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):
vaneck.com/SMHXFelix
Echo Protocol is the first Bitcoin liquid re-staking and yield layer on MoveVM. As the second-largest protocol on Aptos by TVL, Echo secures nearly half of the network’s bridged assets with ~$270M in aBTC minted. https://www.echo-protocol.xyz/
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(02:36) Fed Independence
(08:02) Ads (VanEck, Aptos)
(09:22) Fed Independence
(14:25) What’s the Rates Solution?
(23:40) Upcoming QRA
(25:38) Ads (VanEck, Aptos)
(27:03) Upcoming QRA
(32:14) Potential Fed Pivot
(35:49) Dollar Regime Shift
(46:08) Housing Market
(51:04) Final Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance
The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Felix Jauvin interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.
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