The Post-Summer Market Rotation is Here | Weekly Roundup
This week, we break down the seasonal market pivot around Labor Day, how systematic strategies dominate price action, and why inflation and economic re-acceleration could make a September rate cut a policy mistake. We also dive into the shift from capital to labor, growing government intervention in markets, parallels between AI CapEx and past gold cycles, the potential rotation from large-caps into small caps, and the state of treasury companies. Enjoy!
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Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/10EvjpyXzXIjKJsjlwp5C3zKhQTn2pS5t/view?usp=sharing
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This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.
Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):
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Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(02:32) Labor Day Reset?
(05:39) Market Structure & Volatility
(12:58) VanEck Ad
(13:43) Market Structure & Volatility
(14:21) Fed Takeover Update
(15:21) The Inflation Trade
(22:08) Wages & Shift from Capital to Labor
(28:41) VanEck Ad
(29:22) Liquidity Danger Zone?
(41:34) The Capex Cycle
(48:28) What’s Next for Treasury Companies?
(51:32) Tyler’s New Job
(53:01) Russell & Market Breadth
(55:15) Final Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance
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55:52
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55:52
Trump’s Tariffs Could Stall Growth Before 2026 Surge | Alfonso Peccatiello
In this episode, founder of The Macro Compass Alfonso Peccatiello breaks down the clash between Trump’s political influence on the Fed, the reality of U.S. fiscal policy, and how to think about global markets at this moment in time. We also dig into forward rate pricing, the TGA rebuild, and the role of commodities and crypto in a world of loose monetary and fiscal policy. Enjoy!
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Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for £100 OFF
https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london
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This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.
Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):
http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix
Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):
vaneck.com/SMHXFelix
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Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(02:42) What’s Happening with Monetary Policy?
(07:46) What Fed Risk is the Market Pricing?
(10:55) Bond Market & Fiscal Tightening
(13:54) Understanding Changing Fiscal Impulse
(14:51) VanEck Ad
(15:34) Understanding Changing Fiscal Impulse
(19:46) QE vs Fiscal Deficits
(24:41) Impact of TGA Rebuild
(29:27) Signal for Average Macro Traders
(30:04) VanEck Ad
(35:05) Investing in High Inflation & Growth
(36:59) European Markets
(40:31) US Dollar & Emerging Markets
(43:54) Commodities Outlook
(47:03) Final Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance
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48:06
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48:06
Will Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech Break Markets? | Weekly Roundup
This week, we break down the upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium and whether we can expect a dovish or hawkish tilt from Powell’s legacy speech. We also dig into the Fed’s five-year policy review, Trump’s Fed takeover strategy, foreign retreat from Treasury auctions, and whether the risks of inflation are greater than the risk of recession. Enjoy!
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Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
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Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for £100 OFF
https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london
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Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1zjfyhnCSgVzJ5u4f7LAHct6KKLq_6gxk/view?usp=sharing
—
This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.
Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):
http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix
Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):
vaneck.com/SMHXFelix
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(03:50) Jackson Hole Preview
(09:43) VanEck Ad
(10:27) Fed Minutes
(13:05) Will Powell Be A Dove or Hawk?
(19:02) Bullish Post Jackson Hole?
(20:10) JH Impact on Bond Yields
(25:09) Trump’s Fed Takeover Strategy
(29:36) Centralization & the Frontiers
(32:42) VanEck Ad
(33:24) Treasury Auctions in Danger Zone?
(38:19) Hike to Save the Long End!
(40:05) Boom Time in Japan?
(43:45) Inflation Risk > Recession Risk
(47:00) The New Financial Reality
(51:32) Short Financials?
(52:30) Final Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance
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53:12
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53:12
Crypto Credit Markets Will Rewrite Risk Management | David Grider
In this episode, David Grider of Finality Capital shares how he runs a digital asset hedge fund, the rise of digital asset treasury companies, and the evolving credit and derivatives markets shaping institutional crypto adoption. He also explains how macro liquidity signals drive his strategy and why the new toolbox of crypto credit instruments is changing the game for risk management and alpha generation. Enjoy!
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Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
__
Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for £100 OFF
https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london
__
This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.
Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):
http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix
Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):
vaneck.com/SMHXFelix
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(04:49) Running A Liquid Crypto Fund
(09:29) VanEck Ad
(10:14) Main Sources of Alpha
(12:29) Have We Had an Alt Season?
(14:34) Evolution of Crypto Derivatives
(17:46) Quantifying Market Froth
(20:32) Measuring Systemic Risk
(25:22) VanEck Ad
(26:03) Can ETH DATs Issue Preferreds?
(29:15) Crypto’s Credit Market
(31:54) What Happens When mNAV is Negative?
(33:59) Framework for Saylor’s New Yield Curve
(38:42) What Should Saylor Do Next?
(44:13) Managing the full Spectrum of Tools
(48:21) Final Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance
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49:03
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49:03
Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of a 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup
This week, Brent Johnson joins us to break down the latest CPI & PPI data, the potential for September rate cuts, and why he thinks we’re ripe for a 10–15% correction. We also unpack Trump’s political strategy toward Powell, Brent’s dollar milkshake theory, and AI’s long-term impact on productivity, inflation, and the next generation. Enjoy!
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Follow Brent: https://x.com/SantiagoAuFund
Follow Tyler: https://x.com/Tyler_Neville_
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Forward Guidance Telegram: https://t.me/+CAoZQpC-i6BjYTEx
Forward Guidance Newsletter: https://blockworks.co/newsletter/forwardguidance
—
Join us at Digital Asset Summit in London October 13-15. Use code FORWARD100 for £100 OFF
https://blockworks.co/event/digital-asset-summit-2025-london
__
Weekly Roundup Charts: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1HpY5-OGzqa3t0tVz1a-2RnUXCI6BbZU5/view?usp=sharing
—
This Forward Guidance episode is brought to you by VanEck.
Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH):
http://vaneck.com/SMHFelix
Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX):
vaneck.com/SMHXFelix
—
Timestamps:
(00:00) Introduction
(04:28) Inflation Heating Up?
(07:45) Brent's Macro Outlook
(12:08) VanEck Ad
(12:53) Should the Fed Cut?
(16:01) Time for a Correction?
(28:58) VanEck Ad
(29:38) Dampening of Animal Spirits
(33:29) Going Full Ponzi?
(37:15) The Imperial Circle
(41:31) Is the Dollar Milkshake Still Intact?
(48:45) Gold & Gold Miners
(51:13) Bifurcated Economy
(55:29) AI Boom Bearing Fruit?
(58:41) What Does Trump Really Want?
(01:01:20) The Younger Generation Is Screwed
(01:04:12) Stablecoins & the US Empire
(01:07:06) Final Thoughts
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Disclaimer: Nothing said on Forward Guidance is a recommendation to buy or sell securities or tokens. This podcast is for informational purposes only, and any views expressed by anyone on the show are opinions, not financial advice. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies, funds, or projects discussed.
#Macro #Investing #Markets #ForwardGuidance
The laws of macro investing are being re-written, and investors who fail to adapt to the rapidly changing monetary environment will struggle to keep pace. Felix Jauvin interviews the brightest minds in finance about which asset classes they think will thrive in the financial future that they envision.
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