CommBank View: Economics & Markets

Australia and New Zealand are navigating very different economic cycles, but both face the challenge of persistent inflation and higher interest rates. So what lies ahead for the two economies?
Recorded live at the CommBank Global Markets Conference 2026, host Mandy Drury is joined by CommBank Chief Economist Luke Yeaman and ASB Acting Chief Economist Kim Mundy to explore the outlook for growth, inflation and interest rates on both sides of the Tasman.
They unpack the pressures facing households and housing markets, the impact of the AI and data centre investment boom, and how government policy and global developments could shape the economic outlook.
Plus, CommBank Economist Harry Ottley shares the key focuses for markets in the week ahead.
Important Information
This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).
Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.
No Reliance
This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes.
This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.
The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.
Liability Disclaimer
The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.
Usage of Artificial Intelligence
To enhance efficiency, GEMR may use the Bank approved artificial intelligence (AI) tools to assist in preparing content for this podcast. These tools are used solely for drafting and structuring purposes and do not replace human judgment or oversight. All final content is reviewed and approved by GEMR analysts for accuracy and independence.

Global trade has made economies more connected than ever, but has that interconnectedness also left Australia more vulnerable to disruption?
Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Head of Commodities and Sustainable Economics Vivek Dhar about why oil prices remain elevated, how Iran's influence over the Strait of Hormuz is shaping the market and what a potential US-Iran deal could mean for the outlook.
Mandy then speaks with CommBank Senior Geo-Economics Analyst Dr Madison Cartwright about the global trade vulnerabilities exposed by disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, the growing risks across Asia-Pacific trade routes and where Australia is most exposed to global trade disruption.
Plus, CommBank Economist and Currency Strategist Samara Hammoud shares the key focuses for markets in the week ahead.
Important Information
This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).
Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.
No Reliance
This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes.
This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.
The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.
Liability Disclaimer
The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.
Usage of Artificial Intelligence
To enhance efficiency, GEMR may use the Bank approved artificial intelligence (AI) tools to assist in preparing content for this podcast. These tools are used solely for drafting and structuring purposes and do not replace human judgment or oversight. All final content is reviewed and approved by GEMR analysts for accuracy and independence.

The RBA and US Federal Reserve are raising interest rates, but could bond yields already be approaching their peak?
Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Head of Market and Rates Strategy Adam Donaldson and Head of FX, International and Geoeconomics Joseph Capurso about the outlook for interest rates in Australia and the US, and how much further central banks may need to go to bring inflation under control.
They unpack what the latest RBA hike means for Australian rates, why the Fed could have further to tighten and the forces driving bond yields to multi-decade highs, as well as what could eventually turn the global rates cycle.
Plus, CommBank Economist Lucinda Jerogin shares the key focuses for markets in the week ahead.
Important Information
This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).
Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.
No Reliance
This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes.
This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.
The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.
Liability Disclaimer
The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.
Usage of Artificial Intelligence
To enhance efficiency, GEMR may use the Bank approved artificial intelligence (AI) tools to assist in preparing content for this podcast. These tools are used solely for drafting and structuring purposes and do not replace human judgment or oversight. All final content is reviewed and approved by GEMR analysts for accuracy and independence.

Australia’s housing market is losing momentum, so how far could prices fall and what will eventually turn the market around?
Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Senior Economist Trent Saunders about why housing weakness has spread beyond Sydney and Melbourne, why rental conditions remain so tight and the role interest rate cuts could play in an eventual recovery.
They also unpack why CommBank’s estimate of Australia’s neutral cash rate has risen to 3.85%, what that could mean for interest rates over the longer term and the inflation signals to watch as the RBA weighs its next moves.
Plus, CommBank Energy & Sustainable Economist John Oh shares the key focuses for markets in the week ahead.
Important Information
This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).
Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.
No Reliance
This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes.
This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.
The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.
Liability Disclaimer
The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.
Usage of Artificial Intelligence
To enhance efficiency, GEMR may use the Bank approved artificial intelligence (AI) tools to assist in preparing content for this podcast. These tools are used solely for drafting and structuring purposes and do not replace human judgment or oversight. All final content is reviewed and approved by GEMR analysts for accuracy and independence.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

What’s next for Australian property and what will it take to build the homes and infrastructure the country needs?
In this special episode, CommBank Chief Economist Luke Yeaman sits down with Mirvac Group CEO & Managing Director Campbell Hanan to discuss the forces shaping Australia’s property sector, from the housing-market slowdown and supply constraints to the outlook for commercial property and construction costs.
They explore what’s holding back new housing, the opportunities and challenges created by the data-centre boom, and how modular construction and other innovations could help Australia build faster and more affordably.
Plus, CommBank Senior Associate, Market Strategy and Rates Research Michael Tang shares the key focuses for markets in the week ahead.
Important Information
This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).
Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.
No Reliance
This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes.
This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.
The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.
Liability Disclaimer
The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.
Usage of Artificial Intelligence
To enhance efficiency, GEMR may use the Bank approved artificial intelligence (AI) tools to assist in preparing content for this podcast. These tools are used solely for drafting and structuring purposes and do not replace human judgment or oversight. All final content is reviewed and approved by GEMR analysts for accuracy and independence.
See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.