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Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Jack Farley
Monetary Matters with Jack Farley
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257 episodes

  • Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

    Why Generative AI Still Can’t Trade | David Wright on How Quant Alpha Actually Is Done With Machine Learning, Decision Trees, and Gradient Boosting

    10/05/2026 | 38 mins.
    This interview is brought to you by Pictet Asset Management. To learn more about Pictet AI-Enhanced  International Equity ETF ($PQNT), click here: https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqnt/

    To learn more about Pictet AI Enhanced US Equity ETF ($PQUS), click here: https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqus/ 

    Jack Farley sits down with David Wright, co-head of Quantitative Investments at Pictet Asset Management, to  discuss the machine learning techniques his team uses in their $30 billion quant franchise, and the degree to  which AI has impacted serious quantitative investing. Wright explains why he prefers to utilize many decision trees and use gradient boosting rather than Generative AI to generate return forecasts, citing the need to avoid  "hallucinations" and ensure models remain interpretable. The conversation explores their sophisticated  investment process, which analyzes over 400 features, including accounting data, market trends, and analyst  sentiment, to predict relative stock performance over 20-day horizons. These strategies, which now are included  in new ETFs $PQNT (Pictet AI Enhanced International Equity ETF) and $PQUS (Pictet AI Enhanced US Equity  ETF) are designed as "passive replacements," aiming to maintain a Beta of 1.0 while aiming to deliver an  additional 1–2% annual outperformance over the relevant benchmarks, S&P 500 and MSCI EAFE indices. Finally,  Wright addresses the common "black box" misconception of quantitative finance, advocating instead for a "crystal  box" approach that provides full transparency into the economic rationale behind every trade. Recorded April 21,  2026.

    For important information about the fund, please click: https://etf.am.pictet.com/” 

    Important Information 

    Before investing, carefully consider the fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. This and  other information can be found in the fund’s prospectus or, if available, the summary prospectus, which  may be obtained by calling (855) 994-4778 or visiting www.pictet.com/etf. Read it carefully before investing.  (In Italic or Bold)  

    Investing in Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) involves risk, including possible loss of principal. The fund's principal  investment risks include Artificial Intelligence Models and Data Risk, Non-Diversification Risk, Convertible  Securities Risk, Rights and Warrants Risk, Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) Risk and Sustainability & ESG  Data Risk. For additional information about these and other fund risks, please refer to the "Principal Investment  Risks" section of the prospectus. 

    ETFs are subject to additional risks that do not apply to conventional mutual funds, including the risks that the  market price of an ETF's shares may trade at a premium or discount to its net asset value, an active secondary  trading market may not develop or be maintained, or trading may be halted by the exchange in which they trade,  which may impact an ETF's ability to sell its shares. Shares of any ETF are bought and sold at market price (not  NAV) and are not individually redeemed from the ETF. Brokerage commissions will reduce returns. 

    Foreside fund services, LLC, distributor. 

    Definitions of terms used in the interview: 

    1. S&P 500 Index 

    The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P 500) is a market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly  traded companies in the United States. It is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities.  Because it is weighted by market value, larger companies have a greater impact on the index's performance than  smaller ones. 

    2. MSCI EAFE Index 

    The MSCI EAFE Index is a stock market index that tracks the performance of large- and mid-cap securities  across developed markets around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The acronym stands for Europe,  Australasia, and the Far East. It is commonly used as a benchmark for international equity funds.

    3. Alpha 

    Alpha represents the "excess return" of an investment relative to the return of a benchmark index. It is a measure  of performance on a risk-adjusted basis. "Positive Alpha: indicates the investment outperformed its benchmark  after accounting for risk and "Negative Alpha" indicates the investment underperformed relative to the  benchmark. 

    4. Beta 

    Beta measures the volatility—or systematic risk—of a security or portfolio in comparison to the market as a whole  (usually the S&P 500, which has a Beta of 1.0) A Beta > 1.0 indicates the investment is more volatile than the  market (e.g., if the market rises 10%, the investment might rise 12%) A Beta < 1.0 indicates the investment is less  volatile than the market (e.g., if the market falls 10%, the investment might only fall 8%). 

    5. Basis Points (bps) 

    A Basis Point is a standard unit of measure for interest rates and other percentages in finance. One basis point is  equal to 1/100th of 1%, or 0.01%.
  • Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

    Finding the Market’s Most Overlooked Macro Themes and Profiting from Global Volatility | Harris Kupperman

    06/05/2026 | 1h
    Monetary Matters listeners can save $1000 on their first-year subscription to KEDM Research with coupon code mm2026: https://kedm.com/?add-to-cart=4175&apply_coupon=mm2026

    Harris Kupperman and Roderick van Zuylen join Monetary Matters to discuss the intersection of thematic macro trends and event-driven catalysts. They dives deep into the severe supply-demand imbalances creating massive tailwinds for the refining industry, alongside the political shifts making Latin American equities a highly lucrative trade. They also discuss the rising volatility driving commodity brokers like Marex, and why the eldercare sector is primed for a breakout due to a halt in new facility construction.

    Follow KEDM Research on X: https://x.com/KEDM_COM

    Follow Harris Kupperman on X: https://x.com/hkuppy

    Follow Roderick van Zuylen on X: https://x.com/roojoo3

    Follow Max Wiethe on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe

    Follow Jack Farley on X: https://x.com/JackFarley96

    Follow Monetary Matters on:

    Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh

    Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5

    YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

    Timestamps:

    00:00 Intro

    01:10 Refiners Theme Setup

    02:06 Why Cracks Tightened

    05:18 Picking Refiner Winners

    08:26 Earnings Path Dependence

    14:22 Analyst Estimates Mispriced

    17:54 Latin America Tailwinds

    20:57 Brazil Financials Bet

    24:01 Finding Mispriced Setups

    30:28 KEDM Offer

    31:15 Long Vol Through Brokers

    34:03 Marex and Stonex Tailwinds

    34:33 Macro Drivers of Volumes

    36:11 CFO Hedging Incentives

    37:57 Prediction Markets Opportunity

    39:32 Eldercare Theme Setup

    44:53 When Themes Meet Catalysts

    46:17 Investor Days as Signals

    48:45 Fallen Angels Returns

    53:15 AI Automation for Monitors

    54:23 CEO Pay as a Tell

    55:26 US Consumer Weakness

    This podcast is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice. Any views expressed are the personal opinions of the speakers and do not necessarily reflect the views of their employers, affiliates, clients, or any related parties. Listeners should conduct their own research and consult their own advisers before making any investment or financial decision. The appearance of any speaker, guest, company, product, or service on this podcast does not constitute an endorsement, recommendation, or approval by any participant or third party. Any investments discussed are illustrative only and are not intended to reflect any actual portfolio. Examples are meant to show aspects of an investment approach, and while some may highlight successful trades, not all trades are successful or profitable.
  • Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

    Warren Pies: The Scramble for Compute Cures All Ills | Two Wolves of “Hockeysticking Earnings” and Hormuz Oil Shock (Plus Caliban)

    04/05/2026 | 1h 10 mins.
    Request Access to Free Trial to Caliban, Warren’s new AI-powered research tool that automates complex data sourcing & institutional-grade charting for investors:

    https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/monetary-matters

    In this episode, Warren Pies, founder of 314 Research and Caliban, joins the show to analyze the "two wolves" currently battling for control of the market: the transformative power of AI and the historic oil crisis in the Strait of Hormuz. Pies details how an "agentic explosion" in AI and a massive scramble for compute are fueling an unprecedented earnings boom, with proprietary data showing that frontier models like Mythos are driving a legitimate, if lopsided, market advance. On the flip side, we explore the terrifying 10-million-barrel-per-day oil deficit caused by geopolitical blockades and why "managed demand destruction" has been the only force keeping prices from skyrocketing past $200. Despite these risks, Warren remains fundamentally bullish on equities, arguing that the AI-driven CapEx cycle and resilient fiscal stimulus are powerful enough to help the S&P 500 look through the energy nightmare. We also get an exclusive look at Caliban. Finally, Warren shares his tactical portfolio positioning, explaining his strategy for staying overweight in both stocks and oil commodities while remaining underweight in fixed income. Tune in to see how the S&P 500 reached the 7,000 target predicted in 2024 and why Warren believes the path to 8,000 remains intact. Recorded May 1st, 2026.
  • Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

    Why Fundamentals Fail the New Economy | Jacob Pozharny on “Sentiment” Analysis’ Role in New Economy Stocks

    01/05/2026 | 1h 22 mins.
    Learn More About Unlimited HFGM Global Macro ETF $HFGM: https://unlimitedetfs.com/hfgm

    In this episode of "Monetary Matters," Jacob Pozharny, Co-Chief Investment Officer and Portfolio Manager at Bridgeway Capital Management, explains why traditional fundamental analysis often fails "new economy" stocks due to the rise of intangible assets like R&D and customer relationships. He details a bifurcated investment strategy that utilizes advanced sentiment analysis for high-tech sectors while maintaining a classic fundamental approach for "old economy" industries. The discussion highlights how the 2026 Iran war is currently creating significant market dislocations in global energy and shipping, offering unique "alpha hunting" opportunities identified through proprietary textual analysis of earnings calls. Pozharny argues that the most effective stock picking occurs in less efficient mid-cap and small-cap markets outside the U.S., where the potential return spread is significantly wider than in the S&P 500. Finally, he outlines his firm's market-neutral approach to building idiosyncratic return streams that remain uncorrelated to broader market direction by leveraging unique data such as buy-side borrow availability. Jacob is portfolio manager of Bridgeway Global Opportunities Fund (BRGOX). Recorded April 16, 2026.

    Follow Jack Farley on X https://x.com/jackfarley96

     Follow Monetary Matters on:

    Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh

    Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5

    YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

    Disclaimer for today’s sponsor, Unlimited HFGM Global Macro ETF $HFGM:

    Past performance is not indicative of future results. An investment should not be made based solely on returns. Before investing you should carefully consider the Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. This and other information is in the prospectus. Please read the prospectus carefully before you invest which can be found on unlimitedetfs.com/HFGM.  Distributed by Foreside Fund Services, LLC
  • Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

    Jim Bianco on Division at the Fed and Jerome Powell’s Controversial Decision to Stay

    01/05/2026 | 41 mins.
    Monetary Matters is now streaming daily as part of Monitoring the Situation. Join us live on X and YouTube from 4 to 5 PM ET Monday through Friday @MTSituation for live interviews and analysis breaking down the market’s most important situations. This is recording of a recent live interview from MTS.

    Jack Farley and Max Wiethe interview Jim Bianco of Bianco Research. The discussion covers Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's controversial decision to stay on after Kevin Warsh becomes Chairman. Bianco highlights the shift towards independent voting at the Fed, pointing to a recent dissents focused on easing bias language. Bianco also explores the economic impact of the continued blockage of the Strait of Hormuz and shares his market outlook, predicting elevated oil prices and trending higher interest rates.

    Follow Jim Bianco on X: https://x.com/biancoresearch

    Follow Jack Farley on X: https://x.com/JackFarley96

    Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe

    Follow Monetary Matters on:

    Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh

    Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5

    YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

    Timestamps:

    00:00 Intro

    00:10 Powell Stays Controversy

    02:24 Fed Independence and Dissents

    03:57 Investigation Deal Explained

    09:04 Easing Bias Forward Guidance

    13:55 Supreme Court and Fed Upheaval

    19:20 Earnings and Market Reaction

    21:47 Oil Shock and Inflation Debate

    25:47 Warsh Era Fed Outlook

    32:13 Strait of Hormuz War Fallout

    39:11 Trades for a Protracted War

    41:30 Wrap Up and Where to Follow

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About Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Jack Farley interviews the very best financial minds about macro, markets, and monetary matters. Follow Jack on Twitter @JackFarley96.

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