Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

In this episode, host Jack sits down with Tian Yang, co-founder and head of research at Variant Perception, to analyze the current macroeconomic landscape and equity market outlook. Tian shares why macro indicators point to a broadly supportive "risk-on" environment over the next three to six months despite recent pullbacks in semiconductor and tech stocks. He discusses the exhaustion of the agentic AI rally, explaining how capital is actively rotating into value laggards such as energy, financials, and healthcare. Tian also breaks down their Log Periodic Power Law (LPPL) framework, a tactical model designed to detect market bubbles and exhaustion signals to help time entries and exits. Beyond equities, the discussion covers broader macro dynamics, including central bank policy expectations, geopolitical supply-side shocks, and regional preferences for Latin America over markets in Europe and India. Finally, Tian details the systematic strategy behind their VPX ETF, which dynamically combines capital cycle, quality, and crowding models to capture upside relative to the S&P 500. They also talk about oil, gold, and IPO window in U.S.

Variant Perception on X https://x.com/VrntPerception

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In this episode, Jack sits down with Kathryn Rooney Vera, Chief Market Strategist at StoneX Group, to unpack the Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates and Chair Warsh's transition toward a quieter, laissez-faire communication style. Kathryn shares her macroeconomic outlook, forecasting that we may still see rate hikes post-election unless widespread AI adoption delivers a significant productivity boost to offset inflation.

Later in the show, Jack is joined by Max Wiethe for a live, unfiltered reaction to the latest mega-cap tech earnings from Microsoft and Meta. They analyze Microsoft's massive revenue and 43% Azure cloud growth, weighing these strong figures against the company's aggressive $41 billion in quarterly capital expenditures. Jack then bluntly breaks down Meta's quarterly results, labeling it a "disaster" due to a 55% surge in costs, an 8% drop in operating income, and unexpectedly weak forward guidance. Finally, the duo wraps up with a look at the semiconductor space, assessing how these fluctuating AI investments are directly impacting chip and equipment stocks like Arm Holdings and Lam Research.

Kathryn Rooney Vera on X https://x.com/KRooneyVera

Kathryn Rooney Vera on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/kathrynrooneyvera/

Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96

Max Wiethe on X https://x.com/maxwiethe

Other People’s Money on X https://x.com/OPMpod

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Luke Gromen, founder of Forest for the Trees, sites down with Max Wiethe to dissect the escalating crisis in the global bond market. Gromen argues that off-balance sheet liabilities, such as baby boomer retirements and surging veterans' benefits, are colliding with massive defense spending to force a dangerous inflationary spiral. He unpacks how "defense stimmies" from nations like Japan and Germany are turning historical creditors into aggressive bond sellers, putting immense pressure on yields. Throughout the conversation, Gromen also issues a stark warning about the AI tech bubble, the incoming policies of new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, and why China's massive gold accumulation is a major red flag for the US dollar.

Read The Forest for the Trees: https://fftt-llc.com

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Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

00:52 Bond Selloff Explained

04:54 Debt Spiral Mechanics

08:22 Global Defense Stimulus

09:58 Real Yields Reality Check

13:20 Fed Chair Fantasy

15:34 Sponsor Break Fundrise

16:57 AI Trade Meets China

20:52 Labor Data Warning

23:02 AI Backstop Coming

26:28 No Long Bond Floor

30:44 Gold Revaluation Debate

35:27 China Gold Buying Surge

36:31 Oil Reserves And Leverage

39:19 Pain Contest with The West

43:22 Inequality and Instability

47:18 Dollar Down Yield Trap

50:03 Buy the Dip

52:12 Gold Targets and Gradualism

54:50 Bitcoin Lags Tech Risk

58:47 Warsh Fed No Good Options

01:02:55 What Breaks First?

01:05:33 Bonds Are the Biggest Bubble

In this episode of Monetary Matters, host Jack sits down with Nicholas Brooks, Head of Economic and Investment Research at ICG, to discuss the true health of private credit and corporate balance sheets. Brooks argues that underlying corporate fundamentals and EBITDA growth remain highly resilient against macroeconomic and geopolitical noise. He notes that corporate interest coverage ratios are stabilizing in Europe and actually improving in the United States, pointing away from any imminent, systemic private sector risks. Instead, Brooks warns that the most significant medium-term threat to the global economy stems from soaring government debt and unchecked fiscal deficits, which could spark future market volatility and further weaken the U.S. dollar. The conversation also explores how massive capital expenditures in artificial intelligence infrastructure are currently acting as a protective buffer for the broader economy, even as the ultimate, long-term impacts on worker productivity remain uncertain. Finally, Jack provides his own post-interview analysis, highlighting the immense influence of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions on corporate debt metrics and exploring the reflexive nature of capital inflows within private markets. Recorded July 13, 2026.

Nicholas Brooks on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicholas-brooks-4738a927/

Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96

Nicholas Brooks works:

“Recent US Credit Market Dislocation: Systemic or Idiosyncratic?”:

https://www.icgam.com/2025/10/24/recent-us-credit-market-dislocation-systemic-or-idiosyncratic/

“Middle East Update: Implications of the war for the global economy and markets”:

https://www.icgam.com/2026/05/13/middle-east-update-implications-of-the-war-for-the-global-economy-and-markets/

BIS paper on Debt Levels (“BIS Working Papers No 1235 Aggregate debt servicing and

the limit on private credit”):

https://www.bis.org/publ/work1235.pdf

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In this episode of Other People's Money, Max Wiethe sits down with hedge fund manager Russell Clark to discuss why he believes the U.S. Treasury market is a much larger and more dangerous speculative bubble than AI. Clark details his macroeconomic outlook, arguing that a shifting political landscape focused on 7% wage growth and lower living costs will eventually push the 10-year Treasury yield up to an astonishing 10%. To stabilize affordability for younger generations, he predicts real estate will remain flat nominally while heavily declining in real terms. Clark also breaks down the massive capital expenditures in AI, viewing them as defensive strategies by legacy tech giants to protect their moats rather than mere speculation. Finally, Clark also warns about sectors reliant on low rates and the severe illiquidity and mispriced risks currently lurking within the private credit and private equity markets.

Read Russell’s Substack: https://www.russell-clark.com

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Marketing Agent: PINE Distributors LLC.

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

01:38 Why Treasuries Look Risky

04:33 Foreign Reserves Shift from Gold to Bonds

08:59 Politics Turns Inflationary

14:12 Japan Leads

16:09 Wage Inflation Drives Yields

20:37 Sponsor Break SOYB

21:58 High Real Rates New Normal

26:14 Trading Long View vs Noise

29:09 Housing Tug of War

34:02 Politics Converge Anyway

36:03 Chips Are New Oil

38:38 Is AI a Bubble?

44:12 AI and Wage Politics

50:37 Strategic AI Spending

54:17 Leverage Unwind Risks

59:29 Private Credit Red Flags

01:04:13 Wrap Up and Links