Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Eric Wallerstein, Chief Macro Strategist at Clocktower Group, joins OPM to discuss why he sees substantial risk that the Fed is making a policy mistake by hiking into a supply shock that could cause a 2022 style bear market. He also explores the global coordination of rate hikes and why he believes the participation of lower growth economies like Canada indicate that this is a reaction to higher energy prices and not a substantially higher global neutral rate.

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JFMW Partners LLC (“Promoter”) is providing this endorsement of, and information related to, the advisory services offered by Namsoft Advisors LLC ("Namsoft"). Promoter is not a current client or investor in any Namsoft advisory account or private fund. Promoter receives cash compensation from Namsoft in the form of a flat referral fee of $750 for each client that engages Namsoft as a result of Promoter's promotional activities. Because Promoter is compensated for this endorsement, a material conflict of interest exists, as Promoter has a financial incentive to promote Namsoft's services to you. This endorsement is delivered as part of a podcast or other audio program produced by Promoter and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation that any particular advisory arrangement is suitable for you.

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

00:56 Fed Hike and Higher for Longer

02:30 Oil Driving Global Yields

05:58 Canada and Global Neutral Rate

07:14 Energy Crisis and Degrowth Risks

08:44 Politicized Fed and Credibility

11:50 Neutral Rate and AI CapEx Boom

14:47 Inflation Outlook and Policy Mistakes

17:20 Plutus Sponsor Break

18:46 Key Data to Watch: Bank Lending

20:07 Doves vs Hawks and Fiscal Drag

23:30 2022 Style Bear Market Setup

25:56 What Could Invalidate the Thesis?

26:41 BOJ Hike and Yen Intervention

31:20 Korea Silicon Boom

35:43 Europe Under Pressure

39:25 Middle East Outlook

43:06 Midterm Issues: AI vs. Gas Prices

48:34 China Oil Strategy

52:10 Big Calls Wrap

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Jérémie Boyer, co-founder of Aurelion Research, joins OPM to give his outlook for 5 key commodities. He explains why after avoiding earlier downside volatility in gold he just got the buy signal he’s been waiting for, and why the longer-term AI driven bull thesis on copper is very real and happening now. He also gives his outlook for uranium, fertilizer, and oil and discusses how he and his partner turn commodity views into a portfolio of equities that is up over 100% since inception a little over 1-year ago.

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JFMW Partners LLC (“Promoter”) is providing this endorsement of, and information related to, the advisory services offered by Namsoft Advisors LLC ("Namsoft"). Promoter is not a current client or investor in any Namsoft advisory account or private fund. Promoter receives cash compensation from Namsoft in the form of a flat referral fee of $750 for each client that engages Namsoft as a result of Promoter's promotional activities. Because Promoter is compensated for this endorsement, a material conflict of interest exists, as Promoter has a financial incentive to promote Namsoft's services to you. This endorsement is delivered as part of a podcast or other audio program produced by Promoter and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation that any particular advisory arrangement is suitable for you.

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

02:16 Why Gold Could Hit 5K

05:45 Geopolitics Over Rates

09:24 Portfolio Positioning

12:28 Managing Miner Cycles

16:26 Plutus

18:26 Bearish Oil & Fertilizer

20:28 Oil Thesis & China Inventories

33:23 Royalties as Exposure

36:07 Valuing Royalty Companies

42:48 Why Uranium Now

46:10 Uranium Contracts & Supply

51:10 Energy Security and Nuclear Buildout

54:31 Copper Bull Case in AI Era

01:00:05 Picking Copper Stocks

01:06:43 Five Commodities Recap

01:11:26 Closing and Where to Follow

Jack Farley is joined by David Busch, Chief Investment Officer of Trajan Wealth, to discuss rising U.S. Treasury yields, persistent inflation, and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory. Busch breaks down the structural drivers behind elevated bond yields, including $40 trillion in national debt, geopolitical energy shocks, and massive corporate debt issuance for AI infrastructure. He explains how higher interest rates and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s bond buyback program impact market liquidity and equity valuations. Moving to equities, Busch argues that software stocks like Intuit are heavily oversold regarding perceived AI disruption risks. He highlights the real bottleneck of the AI boom, pointing to critical supply needs in energy, rare earth minerals, and nuclear power. Busch also warns investors about hidden credit and liquidity dangers within private credit markets. Finally, he lays out why 3-to-5-year U.S. Treasuries still serve as an essential portfolio ballast in high-yield regimes.

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About David Busch https://trajanwealth.com/leadership/

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This Monetary Matters episode is brought to you by Fiscal.ai. Get 15% off any paid tier at: ⁠https://fiscal.ai/mm/

Former Fed trader Joseph Wang joins Jack Farley live to break down Chair Kevin Warsh's third meeting — and his first rate hike, framed as "removing a dose of accommodation" against a Middle East oil-shock backdrop. Joseph explains why he called the hawkish move well ahead of the consensus, reading the Jackson Hole signals on financial conditions and the new emphasis on the "speed" of returning to target. The conversation digs into the hawkish dot plot and higher-for-longer path, what a supply-shock reaction function means for the long bond and 30-year TIPS, mortgage rates above 7%, and the plumbing beneath it all — repo, SOFR, the basis trade, and Treasury buybacks. In the second half, Max Wiethe joins to make the case for refiners as the trade of the year, walking through crack spreads, Marathon and Valero, Chinese crude flows, and diesel and fertilizer dynamics. They close on long-bond convexity versus the rate sensitivity of the AI and neocloud buildout, and why Max thinks estimates for names like Lam Research are far too low. A wide-ranging live reaction spanning the Fed's hardest decision in years and the market's response. Recorded September 16, 2026.

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Precious metal and base metal prices have soared as have many mining stocks, but despite this, Freddy Brick, partner at Muddy Waters Capital says that the industry feels closer to left for dead than euphoric. He explains why that setup and the consistency of the mispricing in the sector brought them to launch a fund with the help of mining expert Darren McLean allowing them to take concentrated investments in the assets they think the market is overlooking while running lower net exposure. He also discusses how they think about hedging in the sector, why they take a bottom-up approach to portfolio construction, and how they approach short and long activism in the sector.

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Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

01:28 Approach to Portfolio Construction

07:56 Fraud Report Origin

09:35 Block Models Explained

15:27 Why Juniors Are Distressed

21:19 Finding Mispriced Projects

25:12 Venture Like Investing

28:25 Promoters and Capital Raising

33:43 Sentiment and Cycles

38:28 M&A Wave Ahead

43:27 Trading Vol and Hedging

46:57 Long Activism Approach

50:23 Scaling the Strategy

55:10 When Alpha Shows Up