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Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Jack Farley
Monetary Matters with Jack Farley
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259 episodes

  • Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

    Lyn Alden on Macro Consequences of AI and The Stolgard Incident (Monitoring The Situation Replay)

    13/05/2026 | 50 mins.
    Learn More About Unlimited HFGM Global Macro ETF $HFGM: https://unlimitedetfs.com/hfgm

    Jack Farley and Max Wiethe host Lyn Alden to explore the profound economic shifts driven by AI and the semiconductor industry. Alden compares the current rise of autonomous AI agents to the blue-collar manufacturing shifts of the 1980s, expressing continued bullishness on semiconductors due to physical bottlenecks and immense compute demand. She cautions that while tech hyperscalers remain dominant, their massive capital expenditure requirements and lower switching costs may lead to lower returns on invested capital than seen in previous decades. Regarding digital assets, Alden remains constructive on Bitcoin and moderately bullish on stablecoins, which she views as a vital tool for providing "offshore" banking utility to global users with smartphones. The conversation also highlights a "two-speed" or "K-shaped" economy where record-high stock prices diverge from record-low consumer sentiment due to stagflationary pressures and heavy fiscal spending. Finally, Alden discusses her science fiction novel, “The Stolgard Incident,” which envisions a semi-dystopian 2070s where society grapples with ubiquitous AI, virtual reality escapism, and widening wealth gaps. This originally aired on Monitoring The Situation in late April, see below to tune in. 

    Follow Lyn Alden on X https://x.com/LynAldenContact

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    Lyn Alden’s book, “The Stolguard Incident,” https://www.amazon.com/Stolguard-Incident-Lyn-Alden/dp/B0GNS9MYB5/ref=sr_1_1?adgrpid=193521879551&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.RJbicCTYIekTrz-Xcqzk7A.nC6zf8DffI2xHZBeqYOHUm48fMahUhOyxmiEmcenTBU&dib_tag=se&hvadid=789707336866&hvdev=c&hvexpln=0&hvlocphy=9060354&hvnetw=g&hvocijid=17622433326543445596--&hvqmt=e&hvrand=17622433326543445596&hvtargid=kwd-2473232811348&hydadcr=17070_13576050_1647189&keywords=the+stolguard+incident&mcid=b89d146b19ee37e6bc43fd9ecdb6775a&qid=1778698355&sr=8-1

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  • Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

    Lending Where the Banks Won’t Go: What’s Fueling Europe’s Growing Real Estate Private Credit Market?

    12/05/2026 | 1h 2 mins.
    Learn more about the Fundrise Income Fund here: https://fundrise.com/mm

    In this episode of Other People's Money, Thomas Lloyd-Jones, Co-founder and CIO of Zenzic Capital, joins the show to unpack the nuances of the real estate private credit market. He explains how the media often conflates direct lending with the broader asset class, overlooking real estate and asset-backed lending. Lloyd-Jones details how increasing banking regulations are forcing traditional lenders to retreat, creating a widening gap for opportunistic credit funds to step in.

    This podcast is for informational purposes only and not an inducement to invest with Zenzic Capital. Zenzic Capital’s investment products are limited to professional clients only. The information within this podcast should not be relied upon as tax, legal or investment advice.

    Learn more about Zenzic Capital: https://zenziccapital.com/

    Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe

    Follow Other People’s Money on:



    Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M

    Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi

    YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR

    X https://x.com/opmpod

    Timestamps:

    00:00 Intro

    01:52 Private Credit Breakdown

    03:32 BDCs And Redemptions

    06:35 Allocation Failure Debate

    08:47 Regulation and Fragmentation

    12:07 Basel III Shift

    14:10 Fundrise Income Fund

    15:10 Systemic Risk and Leverage

    17:36 Banks’ Retreat is Opportunity

    20:56 Good vs. Bad Risk Premia

    24:39 Senior Finance

    28:44 Downside Protection and Spotting Bad Deals

    37:48 Macro Matters for Exits

    40:13 Finding Fixable Distress

    43:22 Geopolitics and Rate Shock

    47:01 Preferred Equity Playbook

    51:49 When Development Risk Pays

    54:52 Student Housing Reality Check

    59:40 Macro Allocation Framework

    01:01:59 Conclusion
  • Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

    Why Generative AI Still Can’t Trade | David Wright on How Quant Alpha Actually Is Done With Machine Learning, Decision Trees, and Gradient Boosting

    10/05/2026 | 38 mins.
    This interview is brought to you by Pictet Asset Management. To learn more about Pictet AI-Enhanced  International Equity ETF ($PQNT), click here: https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqnt/

    To learn more about Pictet AI Enhanced US Equity ETF ($PQUS), click here: https://etf.am.pictet.com/pqus/ 

    Jack Farley sits down with David Wright, co-head of Quantitative Investments at Pictet Asset Management, to  discuss the machine learning techniques his team uses in their $30 billion quant franchise, and the degree to  which AI has impacted serious quantitative investing. Wright explains why he prefers to utilize many decision trees and use gradient boosting rather than Generative AI to generate return forecasts, citing the need to avoid  "hallucinations" and ensure models remain interpretable. The conversation explores their sophisticated  investment process, which analyzes over 400 features, including accounting data, market trends, and analyst  sentiment, to predict relative stock performance over 20-day horizons. These strategies, which now are included  in new ETFs $PQNT (Pictet AI Enhanced International Equity ETF) and $PQUS (Pictet AI Enhanced US Equity  ETF) are designed as "passive replacements," aiming to maintain a Beta of 1.0 while aiming to deliver an  additional 1–2% annual outperformance over the relevant benchmarks, S&P 500 and MSCI EAFE indices. Finally,  Wright addresses the common "black box" misconception of quantitative finance, advocating instead for a "crystal  box" approach that provides full transparency into the economic rationale behind every trade. Recorded April 21,  2026.

    For important information about the fund, please click: https://etf.am.pictet.com/” 

    Important Information 

    Before investing, carefully consider the fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. This and  other information can be found in the fund’s prospectus or, if available, the summary prospectus, which  may be obtained by calling (855) 994-4778 or visiting www.pictet.com/etf. Read it carefully before investing.  (In Italic or Bold)  

    Investing in Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) involves risk, including possible loss of principal. The fund's principal  investment risks include Artificial Intelligence Models and Data Risk, Non-Diversification Risk, Convertible  Securities Risk, Rights and Warrants Risk, Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) Risk and Sustainability & ESG  Data Risk. For additional information about these and other fund risks, please refer to the "Principal Investment  Risks" section of the prospectus. 

    ETFs are subject to additional risks that do not apply to conventional mutual funds, including the risks that the  market price of an ETF's shares may trade at a premium or discount to its net asset value, an active secondary  trading market may not develop or be maintained, or trading may be halted by the exchange in which they trade,  which may impact an ETF's ability to sell its shares. Shares of any ETF are bought and sold at market price (not  NAV) and are not individually redeemed from the ETF. Brokerage commissions will reduce returns. 

    Foreside fund services, LLC, distributor. 

    Definitions of terms used in the interview: 

    1. S&P 500 Index 

    The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P 500) is a market-capitalization-weighted index of 500 leading publicly  traded companies in the United States. It is widely regarded as the best single gauge of large-cap U.S. equities.  Because it is weighted by market value, larger companies have a greater impact on the index's performance than  smaller ones. 

    2. MSCI EAFE Index 

    The MSCI EAFE Index is a stock market index that tracks the performance of large- and mid-cap securities  across developed markets around the world, excluding the U.S. and Canada. The acronym stands for Europe,  Australasia, and the Far East. It is commonly used as a benchmark for international equity funds.

    3. Alpha 

    Alpha represents the "excess return" of an investment relative to the return of a benchmark index. It is a measure  of performance on a risk-adjusted basis. "Positive Alpha: indicates the investment outperformed its benchmark  after accounting for risk and "Negative Alpha" indicates the investment underperformed relative to the  benchmark. 

    4. Beta 

    Beta measures the volatility—or systematic risk—of a security or portfolio in comparison to the market as a whole  (usually the S&P 500, which has a Beta of 1.0) A Beta > 1.0 indicates the investment is more volatile than the  market (e.g., if the market rises 10%, the investment might rise 12%) A Beta < 1.0 indicates the investment is less  volatile than the market (e.g., if the market falls 10%, the investment might only fall 8%). 

    5. Basis Points (bps) 

    A Basis Point is a standard unit of measure for interest rates and other percentages in finance. One basis point is  equal to 1/100th of 1%, or 0.01%.
  • Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

    Finding the Market’s Most Overlooked Macro Themes and Profiting from Global Volatility | Harris Kupperman

    06/05/2026 | 1h
    Monetary Matters listeners can save $1000 on their first-year subscription to KEDM Research with coupon code mm2026: https://kedm.com/?add-to-cart=4175&apply_coupon=mm2026

    Harris Kupperman and Roderick van Zuylen join Monetary Matters to discuss the intersection of thematic macro trends and event-driven catalysts. They dives deep into the severe supply-demand imbalances creating massive tailwinds for the refining industry, alongside the political shifts making Latin American equities a highly lucrative trade. They also discuss the rising volatility driving commodity brokers like Marex, and why the eldercare sector is primed for a breakout due to a halt in new facility construction.

    Follow KEDM Research on X: https://x.com/KEDM_COM

    Follow Harris Kupperman on X: https://x.com/hkuppy

    Follow Roderick van Zuylen on X: https://x.com/roojoo3

    Follow Max Wiethe on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe

    Follow Jack Farley on X: https://x.com/JackFarley96

    Follow Monetary Matters on:

    Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh

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    YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez

    Timestamps:

    00:00 Intro

    01:10 Refiners Theme Setup

    02:06 Why Cracks Tightened

    05:18 Picking Refiner Winners

    08:26 Earnings Path Dependence

    14:22 Analyst Estimates Mispriced

    17:54 Latin America Tailwinds

    20:57 Brazil Financials Bet

    24:01 Finding Mispriced Setups

    30:28 KEDM Offer

    31:15 Long Vol Through Brokers

    34:03 Marex and Stonex Tailwinds

    34:33 Macro Drivers of Volumes

    36:11 CFO Hedging Incentives

    37:57 Prediction Markets Opportunity

    39:32 Eldercare Theme Setup

    44:53 When Themes Meet Catalysts

    46:17 Investor Days as Signals

    48:45 Fallen Angels Returns

    53:15 AI Automation for Monitors

    54:23 CEO Pay as a Tell

    55:26 US Consumer Weakness

    This podcast is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment, legal, tax, or other professional advice. Any views expressed are the personal opinions of the speakers and do not necessarily reflect the views of their employers, affiliates, clients, or any related parties. Listeners should conduct their own research and consult their own advisers before making any investment or financial decision. The appearance of any speaker, guest, company, product, or service on this podcast does not constitute an endorsement, recommendation, or approval by any participant or third party. Any investments discussed are illustrative only and are not intended to reflect any actual portfolio. Examples are meant to show aspects of an investment approach, and while some may highlight successful trades, not all trades are successful or profitable.
  • Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

    Warren Pies: The Scramble for Compute Cures All Ills | Two Wolves of “Hockeysticking Earnings” and Hormuz Oil Shock (Plus Caliban)

    04/05/2026 | 1h 10 mins.
    Request Access to Free Trial to Caliban, Warren’s new AI-powered research tool that automates complex data sourcing & institutional-grade charting for investors:

    https://www.3fourteenresearch.com/monetary-matters

    In this episode, Warren Pies, founder of 314 Research and Caliban, joins the show to analyze the "two wolves" currently battling for control of the market: the transformative power of AI and the historic oil crisis in the Strait of Hormuz. Pies details how an "agentic explosion" in AI and a massive scramble for compute are fueling an unprecedented earnings boom, with proprietary data showing that frontier models like Mythos are driving a legitimate, if lopsided, market advance. On the flip side, we explore the terrifying 10-million-barrel-per-day oil deficit caused by geopolitical blockades and why "managed demand destruction" has been the only force keeping prices from skyrocketing past $200. Despite these risks, Warren remains fundamentally bullish on equities, arguing that the AI-driven CapEx cycle and resilient fiscal stimulus are powerful enough to help the S&P 500 look through the energy nightmare. We also get an exclusive look at Caliban. Finally, Warren shares his tactical portfolio positioning, explaining his strategy for staying overweight in both stocks and oil commodities while remaining underweight in fixed income. Tune in to see how the S&P 500 reached the 7,000 target predicted in 2024 and why Warren believes the path to 8,000 remains intact. Recorded May 1st, 2026.
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About Monetary Matters with Jack Farley
Jack Farley interviews the very best financial minds about macro, markets, and monetary matters. Follow Jack on Twitter @JackFarley96.

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