What China is Really Doing With Its “Giant Surpluses” | Brad Setser on China’s Export Dominance, Trade Strategy, and Capital Flows
This episode of Monetary Matters is brought to you by VanEck.
Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHJack
Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): http://vaneck.com/SMHXJack
Brad Setser, Whitney Shepardson senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), returns to Monetary Matters to share how China’s growing export dominance is squeezing the balance of payments position of the U.S., Europe, and many other countries as well. Recorded on October 10, 2025.
Relevant articles by Brad:“China’s Stealth Trade Surplus”: https://www.cfr.org/blog/chinas-stealth-trade-surplus
“China’s Data Still Doesn’t Add Up”: https://www.cfr.org/blog/chinas-data-still-doesnt-add
“China’s New Intervention Rule”: https://www.cfr.org/blog/chinas-new-intervention-rule
“China is also Fighting a Trade War with Europe (and Winning)”: https://www.cfr.org/blog/china-also-fighting-trade-war-europe-and-winning
“The Case that China is Now Actively Resisting Pressure on the Yuan to Appreciate”: https://www.cfr.org/blog/case-china-now-actively-resisting-pressure-yuan-appreciate
Follow VanEck on Twitter https://x.com/vaneck_us
Follow Julian Brigden on Twitter
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96
Follow Monetary Matters on:
Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh
Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5
YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez
--------
1:15:17
--------
1:15:17
Panic on Wall Street | First Brands’ Credit Shockwave & Trump’s 100% China Tariff Threat
This Monetary Matters episode is brought to you by Fiscal.ai. Sign up for a 2-week free trial and get 15% off any paid tier at: http://fiscal.ai/mm
Jack Farley & Max Wiethe react to the weakness in the credit markets upon the large (>$10 Billion) bankruptcy of First Brands and the banks and financial entities that have exposure to it, such as Jeffries, UBS, and others. They also discuss President Trump’s threat to raise tariffs on China substantially, which he later specified as 100%, which sent the stock market and other risk assets tumbling on October 10.
Gymkhana Partners’ (a client) piece on India and tariffs: https://www.gymkhanapartners.com/dispatches/missing-the-forest-for-the-trees
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96
Follow Max on Twitter: https://x.com/maxwiethe
Follow Monetary Matters on:
Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh
Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5
YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez
--------
1:01:36
--------
1:01:36
How Governments Can Actually Raise More Revenues | Taxation Expert Richard Murphy
Richard J Murphy, a political economist, chartered accountant,
tax reform advocate, and professor emeritus at the University of Sheffield,
joins Jack on Monetary Matters to discuss tax reform, economic theory,
inflation, deficits, central banking, and more. While the stock market has
risen to record heights, there is an increasing uncertainty on the health of
the economy. Richard gives his insights into how he believes that we can both increase the productivity of the economy and general welfare by reforming the taxation system.
Follow Richard Murphy on Twitter https://x.com/richardjmurphy?lang=en
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/jackfarley96
Murphy’s “The Taxing Wealth Report 2024”: https://taxingwealth.uk/
Murphy’s blog, “Funding The Future”: https://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/
Murphy’s Book, “The Joy of Tax”: https://www.amazon.com/Joy-Tax-Richard-Murphy/dp/059307517X
--------
58:08
--------
58:08
The AI Capex Bubble, Gold & Silver on the Rise, and Signs of Market Froth | Jack & Max
This Monetary Matters episode is brought to you by Fiscal.ai. Sign up for a 2-week free trial and get 15% off any paid tier at: http://fiscal.ai/mm
Jack Farley & Max Wiethe react to the lack of employment data, discuss the “bubble” in AI capex, gold and silver’s recent rise and examine other signs of market froth pointing to the current stage of the market cycle. Jack and Max also discuss a few interesting short and long opportunities they are playing.
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96
Follow Max on Twitter: https://x.com/maxwiethe
Follow Monetary Matters on:
Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh
Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5
YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro
00:27 No Jobs Numbers & Government Shut Down
02:12 AI Capex Bubble
09:55 Market Bubbles
19:08 Gold & Silver on the Rise
30:21 Fiscal AI
31:44 Opportunities for Shorting ($SWBI)
46:13 Data Center Buildout Theme
48:21 Rates Market is Too Dovish
52:26 Polling the Audience
55:53 Small Cap Season
57:35 Trusting the Bull Market
--------
1:04:19
--------
1:04:19
Echoes of 2007 In Mushrooming Private Credit Boom? | Patrick Perret-Green on Tricolor & First Brands Bankruptcy, Asian Disinflation, And Why U.K. Duration Looks Attractive
Today's episode is brought to you by Teucrium. Learn more at: https://bit.ly/4gfI0fe
Follow Patrick Perret-Green on Twitter https://x.com/PPGMacro
Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96
Patrick Perret-Green of PPG Macro is a veteran macro trader and analyst. He joins us today to share his concern over two recent high-profile bankruptcies that have caused jitters in the non-bank financial sector: Tricolor and First Brands. Patrick explains why he is bullish on long-duration sovereign bonds in Australia, the U.K., and Japan. Recorded on September 30, 2025.
Follow Monetary Matters on:
Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh
Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5
YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez
New Zealand