On The Tape with Danny Moses

Danny Moses welcomes back Cameron Dawson, Chief Investment Officer at NewEdge Wealth, for a deep dive into what's really holding this market together — and where the cracks are starting to show. Cameron explains why the S&P has held its 50-day moving average through war, higher oil, and a more hawkish Fed, and why that resilience comes down almost entirely to earnings. But she digs into a more troubling story underneath the Mag 7's earnings growth: deteriorating earnings quality, accounting maneuvers (reclassified leases, extended payables, one-time investment gains from stakes in companies like Anthropic and SpaceX), and a multiple that's compressed from 23x to 19x as a result. They cover the credit market's early warning signs in CCC-rated bonds, the "crowding out" effect as hyperscalers shift from self-funded to debt-and-equity-funded AI capex, why voters aren't punishing politicians for record deficits (yet), the stock market's growing role as the economy's real pressure point, and positioning in bonds, the dollar, and gold heading into next week's Fed and Bank of Japan decisions.

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ABOUT THE SHOW
For decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners.

Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34

The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content.

Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.

Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Danny Moses welcomes back PGA Tour Live commentator and former pro golfer Ned Michaels for a mix of golf and markets — previewing the Tour Championship and the PGA Tour's new 2028 relegation-style format, then digging into Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole address as Fed chair, Scott Bessent's yen/Treasury interventions, Danny's case for gold and gold miners, energy infrastructure and cannabis plays, the AI capex debate, and government shutdown odds — closing out with golf and Kalshi picks of the week.

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ABOUT THE SHOW
For decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners.

Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34

The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content.

Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.

Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Click the link http://kalshi.com/r/MOSES or download the Kalshi App and use code MOSES to sign up and trade today!

Checkout WAWD on Substack: https://whatarewedoingonthedesk.substack.com/OTT

Sonali joins the podcast on the one-year anniversary of moving from Bloomberg to iCapital, discussing her media series “The Bridge” and iCapital’s reach across wealth and asset managers. The conversation centers on AI economics, especially how declining token costs shift value along the “AI food chain,” with hyperscalers capturing a large share while software and enterprises benefit as costs fall, and with demand (Jevons paradox) potentially sustaining aggregate spend and CapEx. They address rising APAC innovation, why frontier labs pursue IPOs amid heavy cash burn and broad access to debt and equity, and the new NVIDIA-led $500B compute financing platform as Wall Street crowds into AI while investors struggle to diversify as infrastructure, power, and data centers converge. They discuss abundant 2026 liquidity that may tighten, oil’s impact on consumers and second-half caution, hedge fund crowding and the situational awareness leverage unwind, valuation dispersion (semis vs financials/utilities), and rate risks including Treasury basis-trade leverage, a 10-year yield range of 4–4.8%, Japan’s carry trade, and selective interest in Japan and parts of APAC for international exposure.

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ABOUT THE SHOW
For decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners.

Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34

The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content.

Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.

Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Click the link http://kalshi.com/r/MOSES or download the Kalshi App and use code MOSES to sign up and trade today!

Checkout WAWD on Substack: https://whatarewedoingonthedesk.substack.com/OTT

On this week's podcast, Danny Moses speaks with Nicole Kagan, head of research at Kalshi, about her path from Bridgewater to Oxford and then to Kalshi to help build the contract-writing and research functions. Kagan explains how Kalshi sources market ideas internally, from partners, and from users, then evaluates whether a contract is objective, economically justified, and resolvable, often reusing pre-certified templates or submitting new rules for CFTC self-certification. She discusses how Kalshi reviews underperforming markets, prioritizes price discovery, and can keep low-volume markets live. They cover Kalshi’s prediction markets conference, institutional hedging examples, and Fed research finding Kalshi markets more accurate on inflation and Fed funds, including an FOMC pricing divergence versus CME futures. Moses highlights Kalshi’s research links and AI/compute work, then shares his weekly Kalshi picks focused on the Bank of Japan and USD/JPY.

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ABOUT THE SHOW
For decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners.

Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34

The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content.

Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.

Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Learn more about Unlimited ETFs: https://unlimitedetfs.com/

Checkout WAWD on Substack: https://whatarewedoingonthedesk.substack.com/OTT

Click the link http://kalshi.com/r/MOSES or download the Kalshi App and use code MOSES to sign up and trade today!

Danny welcomes back Bob Elliott, author of Nonconsensus and Co-Founder/CEO/CIO of Unlimited, to discuss the Fed meeting, oil volatility tied to Hormuz and Red Sea disruptions, and implications for inflation. Elliott expects a hawkish hold, notes inflation has stayed above target for years, and argues oil risks are underpriced given shrinking strategic reserves and potential demand destruction. He explains the recent rise in long-term yields is driven by higher real rates, reflecting capital demand from AI capex and deficits, and says 30-year TIPS near 3% real yields look attractive versus stretched equities. Gold has held steady despite higher real rates amid strong Chinese and central-bank demand. They discuss heavy equity and bond supply, a frozen housing market, weakening consumer tailwinds as tax-refund support fades, limited systemic risk from private credit but poor forward returns, leverage and passive-market structure issues, and China’s low-growth malaise alongside aggressive low-cost AI competition. The episode ends with Kalshi picks: unchanged rates with at least one dissenter, no 2026 rate hikes, and S&P 500 not reaching 8,000 in 2026.

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ABOUT THE SHOW
For decades, Danny has seen it all on Wall Street and has built his reputation on integrity, curiosity and skepticism that he will bring with him each week. Having traded through the Great Financial Crisis and being featured in "The Big Short" is only part of the experiences Danny wants to share with the listener. This weekly podcast cuts through market noise, offering entertaining and informative discussions with expert guests giving their views of the financial world and the human side of it. Whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started, On The Tape provides something for all listeners.

Follow Danny on X: @dmoses34

The financial opinions expressed are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on this content.

Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in 'On The Tape' carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose.

Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.