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Sven Carlin: Sven Carlin: The Case For $10,000 Gold, Oil & Gas, Agriculture, Iron Ore & More
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Sven Carlin to the show. Sven Carlin is Publisher of Value Investing YouTube, Podcast, & Research Platform. During their discussion, Carlin offers insights into various investment opportunities and his value investing philosophy across multiple sectors. Regarding gold, Carlin views the current market with caution, noting excessive speculation and ETF inflows. He suggests that while gold might reach $10,000 eventually, the current environment feels risky. He recommends maintaining a modest portfolio allocation and being willing to trim positions when sentiment becomes too exuberant. In the broader market, Carlin sees significant risks, particularly among technology stocks like NVIDIA. He questions the long-term durability of tech companies' competitive advantages and warns about the potential for rapid disruption. He believes the current market is stretched, with cash flows declining as companies invest heavily in AI and other speculative technologies. Carlin finds more attractive opportunities in overlooked sectors like agriculture and commodities. He appreciates businesses with predictable long-term growth, steady dividend yields, and reasonable price-to-earnings ratios. He emphasizes the importance of patience and maintaining a disciplined approach, especially when investing in cyclical industries. His investment strategy focuses on finding undervalued companies with strong fundamentals, preferring businesses trading at low price-to-earnings multiples and offering consistent dividends. He maintains a diversified portfolio and is willing to slowly accumulate positions in sectors like oil, agriculture, and select international markets. A key principle for Carlin is understanding a company's true value and being comfortable buying more when prices drop. He warns against getting caught up in growth narratives and emphasizes the importance of maintaining a clear-eyed view of a company's actual competitive advantages and potential for long-term value creation. Through his research platform, Carlin shares his investment insights, maintaining a portfolio that has compounded just under 15% annually over seven years, with a focus on value investing principles and careful, methodical investment selection.
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Chris Vermeulen: ‘Pretty Wild’ Next Few Months for Gold | Stocks, Oil & Gas, Miners & More
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Chris Vermeulen to the show. Chris Vermeulen is Founder & Chief Investment Officer, The Technical Traders. In this in-depth discussion, Vermeulen provides insights into the current state of financial markets, with a particular focus on precious metals, commodities, and potential economic shifts. Vermeulen argues that gold is currently signaling potential economic instability, suggesting we are approaching a significant financial reset. He believes the precious metals market is in a temporary pullback phase, with potential for another substantial rally. Drawing parallels to the 2007-2008 market cycle, he anticipates gold could potentially reach $5,100, representing approximately a 30% move from current levels. His investment strategy, which he calls "asset revesting," focuses on moving capital into assets showing the strongest upward trends with the least risk. Vermeulen emphasizes following price action rather than getting caught up in fundamental narratives, noting that markets have their own psychology and momentum. Regarding other commodities, Vermeulen offers nuanced perspectives. He sees copper in an uptrend but isn't particularly bullish, while he's bearish on oil, predicting it could drop to around $45-$52 per barrel. Interestingly, he sees potential in the US dollar, believing it's positioned for a significant rally that could coincide with a stock market correction. His analysis suggests we're in a late-stage economic cycle characterized by innovation (currently represented by AI stocks) and potential market fragility. He warns investors to be cautious, highlighting that a handful of tech stocks are artificially propping up market indices while many underlying stocks are struggling. Vermeulen recommends investors follow price trends, manage risk carefully, and be prepared to move capital quickly between asset classes. He suggests visiting technicaltraders.com for more detailed market insights and trading signals, where he provides daily market analysis and trade recommendations based on his asset revesting strategy.
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Quinton Hennigh: A Geologist’s Playbook for The Next Big Discovery | Gold & Critical Minerals
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Quinton Hennigh to the show. Quinton Hennigh is an Internationally Renowned Economic Geologist who provides critical insights into the current state of mineral exploration and mining. Hennigh highlights a significant decline in metal discovery rates over the past decades, attributing this to major mining companies abandoning their internal exploration efforts and shifting responsibilities to junior exploration companies. Hennigh's current strategy focuses on acquiring assets with unrecognized exploration potential, particularly in underexplored regions like Bolivia, Argentina, and Japan. He emphasizes the importance of targeting large-scale deposits that would attract major mining companies' interest, believing that it requires nearly the same effort to explore a small project as a potentially world-class one. The discussion critically examines the current mining exploration landscape, with Hennigh expressing concern about the proliferation of junior mining companies. He argues that approximately 90% of these companies lack direction and technical capability, creating an inefficient market flooded with speculative ventures. This overcrowding has led to misallocation of capital and a diminishing pool of technical expertise in the mining sector. Hennigh is particularly critical of current industry practices, including the royalty and streaming models, which he describes as "parasitic" to mining companies. He also highlights challenges in permitting processes and regulatory compliance, suggesting these bureaucratic hurdles significantly impede mining development. Looking forward, Hennigh advocates for more efficient capital deployment, reducing permitting complexities, and attracting younger talent to the mining industry. He sees potential in unexplored regions and believes that with the right approach, significant mineral discoveries are still possible. His strategy involves identifying undervalued assets with substantial exploration potential, leveraging modern geological understanding to unlock value that previous explorers might have overlooked.
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38:12
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38:12
John Feneck: US ‘Back Against the Wall’ on Tungsten, How To Beat The Market & Gold Miners
Stijn Schmitz welcomes John Feneck to the show. John Feneck is CEO Feneck Consulting Group. The podcast discussion centers on gold markets, investment strategies, and critical mineral opportunities. Feneck provides insights into the current gold market, noting that while there have been recent price fluctuations, major banks like Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and HSBC are bullish, with price targets ranging from $4,900 to $5,000 for the next year. Discussing gold miners, Feneck highlights that the GDX ETF has broken out to new all-time highs, with producers like Newmont seeing significant growth. He believes junior miners still represent substantial value, with the GDXJ ETF trading well below its 2011-2012 peak. His investment approach combines value investing with technical analysis, focusing on a diversified portfolio of 60-70 stocks to manage risk. Feneck is particularly enthusiastic about critical minerals, especially tungsten and antimony, driven by geopolitical tensions and supply chain concerns. He sees significant opportunity in companies like Guardian Metals and Triumph Gold, which have strategic positions in these critical minerals. His investment philosophy emphasizes understanding company management, project fundamentals, and potential near-term catalysts. The conversation also touched on the challenges of mineral exploration and development, particularly in the United States, where permitting processes can take years. Feneck believes there's growing political momentum to accelerate critical mineral development, with initiatives like Trump's executive orders aimed at reducing dependence on Chinese mineral supplies. Through his consulting group, Feneck offers investment research services, including real-time updates, CEO interviews, and portfolio insights. He emphasizes the importance of active management, conducting extensive research, and maintaining flexibility in investment approach. His track record includes impressive returns, with his current portfolio up 118% for the year, demonstrating the potential of strategic investing in the mining and metals sector.
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36:00
Brien Lundin: Generalist Investors Driving The Commodity Supercycle – Gold, Silver, Copper & More
Stijn Schmitz welcomes Brien Lundin to the show. Brien Lundin is Editor of 'The Gold Newsletter.com' & Host of the New Orlean's Investor Conference. Lundin discusses the current gold market, emphasizing that despite recent volatility, the fundamental factors driving the bull market remain strong. He believes the current market is part of a secular bull market with potential for gold prices to reach between $6,000 to $8,000, and potentially even higher in a significant monetary reset scenario. Central bank buying and the ongoing "debasement trade" continue to support gold's upward trajectory. Regarding mining stocks, Lundin argues that miners are still significantly undervalued. He anticipates that upcoming earnings reports will demonstrate the robust economics of gold projects at current prices. He recommends focusing on larger producers like Newmont and Newcrest in the near term, while also highlighting opportunities among developers and exploration companies. Lundin is optimistic about the increasing capital flow into the mining sector, viewing it as a positive development despite concerns about "dumb money". He sees this as part of a broader commodity super cycle affecting multiple metals, with particularly strong potential for base metals and energy metals due to supply constraints and growing demand. On silver, Lundin is bullish, noting the metal's potential for significant price appreciation. He highlights the inelastic supply of silver, with 70% of production being a byproduct of other metal mining, and expects industrial demand to consume all available mine supply in the coming years. The conversation also touched on other commodities like copper, vanadium, and zinc, with Lundin expressing optimism about their long-term potential driven by supply constraints and increasing demand. He emphasized the importance of understanding the sector, spreading risk, and being patient with investments. Lundin concluded by promoting his upcoming New Orleans Investment Conference, describing it as the longest-running investment event in the world, featuring numerous expert speakers across geopolitics, macroeconomics, and metals investing.
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