Supply Chain Secrets

As 2026 gets underway, early market signals are already diverging. In this episode of Supply Chain Secrets, Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen break down where freight rates are heading post-Chinese New Year, what the latest Container Trade Statistics reveal about global demand, and why North America continues to lag the rest of the world.
They also explore escalating geopolitical risks — from Iran and the Strait of Hormuz to Greenland and terminal ownership — and what these flashpoints could mean for global shipping lanes, capacity, and pricing. Finally, the conversation returns to a familiar conclusion: volatility isn’t going away, and understanding the gap between quoted and paid rates is becoming more critical than ever.
A timely look at what’s shaping early 2026 — and why shippers should stay alert.

In this 2025 year-end review, Caroline, Lars, and Don Davis reflect on a year defined by tariff whiplash, uneven demand, and persistent gaps between quoted vs. paid spot rates. They also look ahead to 2026, where the base case remains continued volatility—with the Red Sea/Suez question, shifting capacity, and geopolitics keeping markets on edge.
Key themes covered:
Why 2025 ended “mixed”: SCFI up while paid, loaded spot rates stayed uneven
How tariffs reshaped shipper behavior toward more just-in-time ordering and priority services
Don’s view from ZIM: strong and growing interest in index-linked contracts, including first-time adopters asking how structures work
The outlook for 2026 rate volatility: continued big swings driven by uncertainty, capacity rebalancing, and potential routing changes
A clear wrap on what defined 2025—and what could make 2026 even harder to forecast!

Global shipping enters another volatile week. Caroline, Lars, and guest Michael Wray of Ocean Network Express (ONE) unpack rate swings across key trades, shifting sourcing strategies, Mexico’s new China tariffs, Red Sea uncertainty, and a surge in maritime risk incidents—from border conflicts to tanker seizures.
In this episode:
NYFI trends across Asia–Europe and the Pacific
Why 20’ > 40’ pricing persists on TA eastbound
The slowdown in Asia–Europe demand
Mexico’s new tariffs on China
Red Sea ceasefire signals & alliance decision-making
Rising maritime risks in the Black Sea, Hormuz, and Southeast Asia
Northern Sea Route reality vs. media hype
The latest on ONE Henry Hudson
Clear, fast insight into the forces shaping 2026.

This week, Caroline and Lars break down another volatile shift in the market — from weakening global demand to unusual rate distortions and rising geopolitical risks.
In this episode:
NYFI loaded spot rates for Asia–North Europe and the Pacific
A rare 20′ > 40′ price inversion on TA Eastbound
Global demand dropping sharply — and why Asia–Europe is the culprit
Tariff investigations and the impact on food imports
Renewed Thailand–Cambodia tensions and supply chain rerouting
A vessel attack in Bab el-Mandeb — but not the kind you think
What a return to the Red Sea would do to TEU miles and capacity
A fast, focused update for shippers, NVOs, and anyone watching the 2026 outlook.

This week on Supply Chain Secrets, Caroline Weaver and Lars Jensen are joined by Sagil Capital Partner Mark Hendricks to break down how freight rate volatility is affecting both shippers and investors. 
They cover the latest NYFI and SCFI movements, widening differences between sub-trades, the newest global reliability numbers, and updates on the ONE Henry Hudson and Red Sea routing. Mark shares how equity investors value shipping companies in unstable markets and why futures and hedging tools matter as 2026 looks increasingly unpredictable.
In this episode:
Rate swings across Pacific and East Coast trades
How investors model volatility in shipping equities
Why futures and hedging could lower financing risk
Updates on reliability, general average, and Red Sea traffic
A fast, digestible look at the forces shaping container shipping and financial markets heading into 2026.