Doug Casey's Take

The End of America.
 
Episode number: 460
 
Doug Casey joins Matt Smith from Buenos Aires, after the New Orleans Investment Conference and Nomad Capitalist in Cancun. They start with the US midterms, which Matt reads as a resounding vote against Trump's policies. Doug restates his bet that Trump will not finish his term, and says a Greater Depression in the next two years would be blamed on the Republicans and would cement the Democrats in office: "that's the end of America, basically." Doug thinks they are still on the track to war with Iran, with a third aircraft carrier group arriving in the region. They also discuss immigration, and DOGE, which they treat as a PR stunt that left the budget bigger than ever. Then the 72-hour preparedness warnings from dozens of countries, the US plan to make military bases self-sufficient because the grid can't be relied on, and a possible 30-day shutdown of financial systems. Doug says the AI data-center boom is heading for huge misallocations, and that Trump has already taken government stakes in over 40 companies. If the market melts down, he expects the government to buy more shares with printed money: runaway inflation and an economy that is "actively socialized."
 
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Ask Doug a question: https://crisisinvesting.com (click "Ask Doug")
 
00:00 Back From The Conferences
02:03 Doug In Buenos Aires
04:07 The Midterm Elections
04:39 Trump Won't Finish His Term
08:28 Secession Or Civil War
10:21 Bush, The TSA, And The Patriot Act
12:17 Government Is A Cancer
13:40 AI Superintelligence
14:27 A Hoover-Style Depression
15:29 The Iran War After The Midterms
17:53 Still On The Track To War
19:13 It's All Kayfabe
20:14 Oil At $88
21:32 Punched The Tar Baby
22:18 Houthis And Saudi Arabia
23:39 A Deal On Immigration
24:12 The 60 Minutes Interview
26:10 Democrats Versus Republicans
26:41 DOGE Was A PR Stunt
28:12 The End Of America
28:55 72-Hour Warnings And The Grid
31:09 AI And Cyber Attacks
32:46 A 30-Day Financial Shutdown
33:36 Something Wicked This Way Comes
34:35 Lockstep Like COVID
36:02 The K-Shaped Economy
39:44 Is The AI Bubble Cracking
41:16 Stakes In 40 Companies
42:39 The End Of America, Again
43:58 Upcoming Guests

Doug Casey joins Matt Smith from New Orleans to talk about the accelerating collapse of Western civilization. Doug says things have become so complex, top-heavy and corrupt that "there's a good chance we're actually gonna go over the precipice," and compares the moment to the collapse of the Bronze Age and the fall of Rome. They discuss the riots spreading across France and Europe, why inclusivity has replaced merit, and why Doug says we live in a fascist society, not a capitalist one. Doug walks through his list of what makes Western civilization unique, from free thought and free speech to property rights and the rule of law. Then the UK and Japan's 3-day emergency warnings, the leaked Pentagon plan for bases to run on their own for 90 days, how fragile the grid is, AI-found exploits, a possible Iran attack after the midterms, Brazil, and how to make your own household more resilient.
Find us at https://crisisinvesting.com
Ask Doug a question: https://crisisinvesting.com (click "Ask Doug")
Doug is speaking at the New Orleans Investment Conference this week, Oct 28-31: https://neworleansconference.com/casey-2/
00:00 Doug On The Road In New Orleans
03:10 Western Civilization Is Collapsing
07:05 Riots Across Europe
10:02 Guaranteed Annual Income
11:37 Two Prongs Of The French Riots
14:25 The '60s Protests Then And Now
16:43 We Live In A Fascist Society
17:59 Capitalism, Fascism, And Socialism
21:28 What Makes The West Unique
22:49 Western Civ Has Got To Go
24:14 Democrats Versus Republicans
29:46 Most People Want More Government
32:31 Nature Versus Nurture
35:17 You Will Own Nothing
36:09 Three-Day Warnings In The UK And Japan
36:54 The Pentagon's 90-Day Plan
37:50 Oil, Refineries, And The Grid
40:16 Will The Military Let You On Base?
42:25 AI And Grid Vulnerabilities
44:30 Soft Targets And People War
48:16 Is Brazil Next?
51:24 An Iran Attack After The Midterms
53:17 "What War?"
54:14 How To Prepare
56:21 Wrap Up

Doug Casey and Matt Smith on the gap between the flash and the bang. The war in the Middle East started February 28th, the Strait of Hormuz is choked, and Saudi Arabia and Yemen are now at war, yet most Americans still ask "What war?" Spot oil in the North Sea is $136 while the futures market says somewhere in the $90s. Why are markets disconnected from reality, and how long before the bang? Plus Saudi Arabia and MBS, Egypt, Israel fatigue, Indonesia's gas lines, AI and the new rust belt, the Fort Hood execution, and why Doug says "the shit will really have hit the fan" anytime between tomorrow and a couple of years from now.
Find us at https://crisisinvesting.comAsk Doug a question: https://crisisinvesting.com (click "Ask Doug")
See Doug at the New Orleans Investment Conference, Oct 28-31: https://neworleansconference.com/casey-2/
00:00 Welcome And New Orleans
02:02 Worse Than The Worst Case
05:11 $136 Oil On The Ground
06:52 Markets You Can't Trust
10:36 Refineries And Fuel Shortages
13:03 Saudi Arabia Is Next
17:36 Egypt's Ticking Time Bomb
20:50 Israel Fatigue
26:04 Indonesia's Gas Lines
31:07 We Saw The Flash. Where's The Bang?
33:33 Rates, Bonds, And A Bifurcated America
36:09 AI And The New Rust Belt
39:37 Billionaires And Their Bodyguards
41:57 Kunstler And Agreeing To Disagree
44:37 Tankers In The Strait
47:36 Books: Vikings And The Mandibles
51:06 Overproduction Of Elites
52:33 Trump's $5,000 Video
54:09 The Fort Hood Execution
1:05:59 Press Secretary And Guilfoyle
1:09:23 Monica's Podcast
1:13:21 Wrap Up

Novelist and essayist James Howard Kunstler (The Long Emergency, the World Made by Hand series) joins Doug Casey and Matt Smith. Kunstler expects prosecutions after the midterms, starting with John Brennan's grand jury appearance. He also says the US military won't let radicals take the levers of power, and that the country has slid from high trust to no trust. Doug and Kunstler clash over the Iran war. Also: Europe tottering, why US shale is more fragile than it looks, what Kunstler got wrong in The Long Emergency, Israel and Gaza, Ukraine and NATO, and the deep state.
Kunstler's Substack: https://www.kunstler.com
Find us at https://crisisinvesting.com
New Orleans Investment Conference, Oct 28-31: https://neworleansconference.com/casey-2/
00:00 Welcome James Howard Kunstler
01:08 Will Anyone Face Justice?
07:11 Brennan Before A Grand Jury
13:39 Bondi, Bongino, And Silence
18:42 Will The Military Step In?
22:35 Two Flavors Of Authoritarianism
26:14 Civil War And A Trump Bet
28:54 Europe Is Tottering
31:10 Iran, Oil, And Shale
37:31 Doug Pushes Back On Iran
41:43 Islam And Europe's Future
45:39 Invasion, Hochul, And New York
49:55 Where Are The Men Of Quality?
51:41 Trump The Paradox
55:44 Markets, Bonds, And The Carry Trade
1:01:11 Kunstler On Gold
1:02:58 The Long Emergency, 20 Years On
1:05:15 From High Trust To No Trust
1:07:59 Half The Country Is Insane
1:12:13 A Steak Of Justice
1:15:13 Is Trump An Authoritarian?
1:18:37 Israel, Gaza, And Tucker
1:24:39 The Iran Blockade
1:26:08 Ukraine And Leaving NATO
1:28:11 Brennan And The Deep State
1:31:54 Wrap Up

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After a brief hiatus, Doug and Matt discuss Trump's escalating rhetoric about Iran potentially nuking U.S. cities and argue the U.S. bears historical responsibility for the conflict, citing oil interests, the CIA-backed coup against Mossadegh, the Shah, and the 1979–1980 embassy crisis. Doug says Trump's actions have worsened the situation, advocates a public apology and possible indemnity to de-escalate, and predicts Trump will not complete his term due to impeachment, the 25th Amendment, assassination, or broader instability. They debate nuclear delivery realities, warn that antagonizing adversaries invites catastrophe, and frame current conflicts—Middle East shipping chokepoints, Houthi-Saudi fighting, and Russia-Ukraine maritime attacks—as kindling for World War III. They also cover French unrest, demographic and religious shifts, bond-market stress, a potential tech-bubble burst, and conclude by favoring energy and mining stocks.
00:00 Back From Hiatus
00:28 Trump Iran Nukes Talk
03:07 Why Iran Hates US
05:45 Apology Not Escalation
07:55 Trump Term Prediction
09:43 Nuclear Delivery Reality
14:33 World War Three Path
15:12 Saudi Yemen Flashpoint
20:15 Chokepoints And Shipping
26:05 Empire Bases Vulnerable
27:52 Elections And Dissidents
30:36 Islam And Instability
31:52 France Protests Breakdown
36:46 Bond Market To Collapse
39:43 Fourth Turning Theory
41:22 Worst President Forecast
43:05 Wrap Up And Investing