Trends with Friends

Hear ye, hear ye. Howard is back on Trends With Friends with an actual friend and streaming insider: Farhad Massoudi, founder of Tubi – the free, ad-supported streaming service he started in 2011, launched in 2014, and sold to Fox for about $500M. Today, Tubi has 100M+ MAUs, $1B+ in revenue, and is profitable… not bad for what everyone once dismissed as “crap tail content.” Farhad walks through how Tubi really worked:Why he bet on the tail of the library (bottom 99%) instead of the sexy top 20 originalsHow Tubi was always a data & AI company that happened to be mediaWhy fragmentation in news, music, and now TV makes the YouTube-style model inevitableThen they go deep on the Netflix–Warner Bros–Paramount–Ellison–Qatar circus:The AT&T → WarnerMedia → Discovery saga and how the bundling thesis already failed twiceWhy Netflix paying a ~180% premium for Warner is, in Farhad’s words, a huge mistakeThe harsh reality: most of Warner’s library is already licensed out (including to Tubi) for yearsWhy Netflix can’t just move the whole library onto its own service without nuking valuable dealsHow international licensing (like Sky in the UK) totally breaks the “just bring it all under Netflix” fantasyWhy the best they can really do is yet another bundle… over many yearsHoward and Farhad also hit: Why YouTube, not Disney/Paramount/Warner, is Netflix’s real competitionHoward’s own shift from “Netflix first” to YouTube first for nightly viewingWhy platforms + algorithms + data will always beat pure curation, except in tiny “Ferrari” nichesThe idea that AI will lower content costs, blow up creation, and make platforms the big winnersHow Ellison’s media buying spree might be a hedge against his massive AI bet (people with more free time need more entertainment)Why it was so hard to raise money for Tubi, why the Fox deal was the right home, and why Farhad still cares about his “baby”A detour into Bravo-ification of Netflix, sports docs, and whether they actually care if you’re watching or just payingPlus some extremely on-brand degeneracy: Persian carpets, 11-foot chest hairs, and showing up to a brutal Italian cycling trip having never clipped into a bikeIf you care about:Streaming wars (Netflix / Warner / Paramount / NBC / Tubi / YouTube)Platforms vs curationAI’s impact on mediaAnd how real operators see this space……this is a masterclass in how the next decade of media might actually play out.Disclaimer: All opinions expressed on this show are solely the opinions of the hosts’ and guests’ and do not reflect the opinions of Stocktwits, Inc. or its affiliates. The hosts are not SEC or FINRA registered advisors or professionals. The content of this show is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decision. Read the full terms & conditions here: https://stocktwits.com/about/legal/terms/

The gang is back for a “Code Red” episode of Trends With Friends.Howard is joined by regulars Michael Parekh and Roy Rubin to unpack the real state of the AI wars: Google vs OpenAI, Apple’s quiet dominance at the edge, Amazon’s under-the-radar AI position, and why Tesla’s FSD might be the new definition of luxury.They go deep on:Why there’s now a “code red” inside OpenAI after Google’s Gemini pushHow Google’s distribution edge (Search, Chrome, Android, YouTube) changes the AI gameRoy’s real-world shift from ChatGPT power user → Gemini everyday userThe uncomfortable truth about OpenAI’s business model and subscription fragilityWhy Apple and Amazon may actually be the least appreciated AI winnersHow Tesla FSD and Waymo redefine “the edge” and what luxury means (time)The coming battle over AI agents in e-commerce, Shopify/Magento, and who owns the customerWhy prediction markets (Kalshi, Polymarket, etc.) might be the new media layer over news & politicsIf you care about where AI, big tech, and commerce are really going over the next 2–3 years — not just the hype — this is the episode.Google vs OpenAI “code red” momentGemini vs ChatGPT and how users are actually behavingApple’s AI moat at the edge (iPhone, iOS, App Store, Siri)Amazon, AWS, and agentic AI for enterprises & e-commerceTesla FSD, Waymo and autonomy as a time-saving utilityAgentic commerce: AI shopping vs merchant-owned funnelsShopify, Magento, marketplaces, and AI as a new distribution layerPrediction markets (Kalshi, Polymarket) as a new form of media🔢 Chapters00:00 – Welcome to “Trends With Friends: Code Red”01:20 – Roy Rubin intro: Magento, Adobe, and R-Squared Ventures03:00 – Magento’s origin story and the open-source e-commerce era05:30 – From Google’s 2017 transformer paper to today’s AI “code red”09:00 – Google’s TPUs, vertical stack and long-game vs OpenAI12:40 – Roy’s behavior shift: from hourly ChatGPT user to barely opening it16:00 – Usage data, code red at OpenAI & the fragility of subscription revenue18:30 – Ads, incentives, and the “one right answer” problem in AI search21:00 – Apps, agents, and why OpenAI may be crowding out its own ecosystem24:30 – Apple’s AI position: distribution, devices, and Siri’s next act28:00 – Google vs Apple vs Android: ecosystems, habits & where AI really lives31:30 – Browsers, AI search, and why no one downloads new browsers anymore36:00 – Grok on X: nice integration, but will it change user behavior?37:20 – Tesla FSD as the new luxury: time is better than leather; Waymo vs Tesla41:45 – Google, China, Nvidia, and who had to “kiss the ring”42:50 – Amazon & AWS: agents, chips and why they’re underrated in AI46:20 – Anthropic’s enterprise focus and cleaner business model49:45 – Commerce reality check: why AI front-ends are still “all noise”51:40 – Shopify, Magento, walled gardens and agentic commerce54:20 – Prediction markets as a new media layer on top of news56:00 – Final takeaways & what to watch over the next 2–3 yearsDisclaimer: All opinions expressed on this show are solely the opinions of the hosts’ and guests’ and do not reflect the opinions of Stocktwits, Inc. or its affiliates. The hosts are not SEC or FINRA registered advisors or professionals. The content of this show is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decision. Read the full terms & conditions here: https://stocktwits.com/about/legal/terms/

Howard and Michael sit down with Multicoin’s Kyle Samani for a fast, no-BS tour of where markets are going next. They rewind the Multicoin origin story (including Howard’s IRA adventure), then dive into why 2022–23 was emotionally tougher than the 2018–19 crypto winter. From there, Kyle lays out “Internet Capital Markets”—finance embedded everywhere—why trading inside chats, media, and sports apps is inevitable, and how prediction markets become the new front page of news. We get into Solana’s lead, stablecoins as rails, prime brokerage natively on-chain, and why the biggest market makers are already active on Kalshi. Kyle also breaks down Forward Industries (ticker FORD): the $1.65B PIPE, turning it into a Solana treasury company, and deploying SOL/USD into DeFi yield. Plus: AI x crypto as the only barbell that matters, perps vs. options (in plain English), and what Kyle is funding next—new modalities for issuance and trading.Chapters00:00 Cold Open: Howard, Michael & Kyle (freshly married, freshly groomed)01:46 Howard’s Multicoin IRA story & the 2019 doldrums05:01 2018–19 vs 2022–23: why the second bear hurt more08:03 Solana 101 & “Internet Capital Markets” explained11:49 Breaking “isolated finance”; embedding trading across the web12:26 Telegram bots → trading where conversations happen15:14 Prediction markets in media & sports (buy/sell on the article)17:21 Stocktwits x Polymarket, swipe-to-trade, and peer-to-peer bets22:01 Institutional plumbing: discovery, silos, and cross-venue UIs25:19 On-chain prime brokerage (Zero on Solana) & collateral efficiency31:54 Why Solana leads; the case for $1T+34:02 Stablecoins as the settlement layer for everything36:15 SIG, Citadel, Jane Street, Jump already active on Kalshi37:40 Sportsbooks vs real markets; letting market makers set prices39:34 Crypto is retail-first: sovereignty, keys, and open participation45:05 Inside FORD: $1.65B PIPE, Solana treasury strategy46:43 Not trading SOL price—deploying SOL/USD into DeFi yield48:30 AI x Crypto barbell: what won’t be disrupted53:41 Perps vs options in plain English; leverage (without the Greeks)57:15 Lessons from 2022: correlation, fraud, and risk controls58:40 What Kyle’s funding next: new modalities for issuance & tradingKyle's Panel at the All In Summit: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ijbLOWFmVe8Join Our Community! https://stocktwits.com/Sign up for our daily FREE newsletter to keep in touch with the market: https://thedailyrip.stocktwits.com/Disclaimer:All opinions expressed on this show are solely the opinions of the hosts’ and guests’ and do not reflect the opinions of Stocktwits, Inc. or its affiliates. The hosts are not SEC or FINRA registered advisors or professionals. The content of this show is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decision. Read the full terms & conditions here: https://stocktwits.com/about/legal/terms/

Howard is joined by Katie Perry to dive headfirst into the "Degenerate Economy", a term he coined to describe the collision of speculation, vice, free time, and mobile tech. From the sin stocks of the 1980s to Robinhood, crypto, and Zyn pouches, this conversation unpacks how financial speculation has morphed into mainstream entertainment. They explore why the post-COVID world unleashed a wave of retail trading, how platforms like Twitter and Discord are the new Wild West saloons, and what it means when money becomes religion. Plus, Howard shares his own investment thesis behind the Degenerate Economy Index, including why CME, Philip Morris, and even Bitcoin make the cut. A must-watch for anyone wondering how speculation, technology, and culture are reshaping capitalism.Join Our Community! https://stocktwits.com/Sign up for our daily FREE newsletter to keep in touch with the market: https://thedailyrip.stocktwits.com/Chapters00:00 What Is the Degenerate Economy?02:45 From Booze to Zyn: Vice Meets Technology05:00 Speculation as Entertainment08:15 Why Everyone’s a Gambler Now10:00 The Missing “Risk Score” for Investors12:00 Peak Grift and the Summer of Scammers15:00 How Speculation Went Mainstream17:00 Dotcom vs Degen: Are We in a Bubble?20:30 Crypto as the New Global Religion25:00 Building the Degenerate Economy Index27:00 Philip Morris, Zyn, and Modern Vice StocksDisclaimer:All opinions expressed on this show are solely the opinions of the hosts’ and guests’ and do not reflect the opinions of Stocktwits, Inc. or its affiliates. The hosts are not SEC or FINRA registered advisors or professionals. The content of this show is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decision. Read the full terms & conditions here: https://stocktwits.com/about/legal/terms/

Howard is back with another mind-bending episode of Trends With Friends alongside Michael Parekh and special guest Jeff Park, Wall Street alum turned Bitwise crypto Jedi. From the radical rethinking of portfolio construction to the institutionalization of Bitcoin, Jeff unpacks how markets are being rewired in real time. The trio dives deep into the death of the 60/40 portfolio, the rise of Bitcoin treasury companies, the myth of the risk-free rate, and why every investor needs to grapple with global carry dynamics. Plus, they debate Elon’s Tesla troubles, BYD’s China dominance, why CME is booming, and how prediction markets and vibe coding are reshaping the next-gen financial playbook. If you care about capital markets, crypto, and the future of speculation as entertainment, don’t miss this one.Chapters00:00 Meet Jeff Park: From Wall Street to Crypto03:00 Radical Portfolio Theory Explained07:20 Why 60/40 Is Dead and the Global Carry Trade Lives10:45 The Degenerate Economy, Bitcoin Treasury Plays, and the New Risk Paradigm16:00 Institutionalization of Bitcoin, ETFs, and Self-Custody22:00 How Financial Engineering Could Break Bitcoin26:00 Prediction Markets, AI, and Speculation as Income31:00 BYD vs Tesla, Global Retail Flows, and Chart Breakdown37:00 Alpaca, APIs, and Building Brokerages for the World44:00 Vibe Coding, LLMs, and the Coming API ExplosionJoin Our Community! https://stocktwits.com/Sign up for our daily FREE newsletter to keep in touch with the market: https://thedailyrip.stocktwits.com/Disclaimer:All opinions expressed on this show are solely the opinions of the hosts’ and guests’ and do not reflect the opinions of Stocktwits, Inc. or its affiliates. The hosts are not SEC or FINRA registered advisors or professionals. The content of this show is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Please consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decision. Read the full terms & conditions here: https://stocktwits.com/about/legal/terms/